The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Logan Paxton v Cristian Pérez

Kickoff: 2026-08-19 00:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Logan Paxton (Local)

Prediction 26.69%3.75fair odd
EV +1.42%
Edge +0.373%
Kelly +0.506%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.34%26.69%26.45%28.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.143.463.403.8031.85%28.88%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cristian Pérez (Visit)

Prediction 73.31%1.36fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -5.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.04%73.31%73.55%74.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.311.321.3478.13%76.21%75.76%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Logan Paxton (Local): 26.69%; Cristian Pérez (Visit): 73.31%. For Logan Paxton (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +1.42%E +0.373%K +0.506%G +0.007%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -5.43%E -4.21%K -18.72%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-18 23:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -1.25%E -0.338%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -22.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-19 00:00
Pinnacle🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 26.45%EV -2.05%E -0.559%K -0.768%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.55%EV -3.23%E -2.45%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-18 23:20
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -1.76%E -1.32%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-18 22:20
BetAnything🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -9.26%E -2.72%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -3.96%E -3.02%K -12.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-18 23:45
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -10.59%E -3.16%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.50%E -1.88%K -7.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-18 23:19
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -10.59%E -3.16%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.50%E -1.88%K -7.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-18 23:19
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -10.59%E -3.16%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.50%E -1.88%K -7.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-18 23:20
ReBet🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 28.96%EV -16.20%E -5.16%K -7.57%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.04%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -22.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-18 22:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎4.28I 23.36%NM 23.30%1.30I 76.92%NM 76.70%0.3%2026-08-19 00:00
Novig◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53%1.32I 75.76%NM 74.47%1.7%2026-08-19 00:00
ProphetX◎3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%6.1%2026-08-19 00:00