Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Logan Paxton v Cristian Pérez

2026-08-19 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

32%

68%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Logan Paxton (Local)

Prediction 31.60%3.17fair odd

EV -3.00%

Edge -0.978%

Kelly -1.45%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.32%31.60%31.60%32.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.942.992.953.0734.01%33.48%33.90%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cristian Pérez (Visit)

Prediction 68.40%1.46fair odd

EV -4.23%

Edge -3.02%

Kelly -10.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.90%68.40%68.40%68.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.381.391.391.4072.46%71.94%71.94%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Logan Paxton (Local): 31.60%; Cristian Pérez (Visit): 68.40%. For Logan Paxton (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.07, with an expected value of -3.00%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -3.00%E -0.978%K -1.45%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -4.23%E -3.02%K -10.58%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-15 20:09
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.79%E -2.30%K -3.48%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.60%E -4.06%K -14.74%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-15 15:59
ReBet🎯	2.94I 34.01%NM 32.10%EV -7.11%E -2.42%K -3.66%G +0.000%	1.39I 71.94%NM 67.90%EV -4.92%E -3.54%K -12.61%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-15 16:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	3.39I 29.50%NM 22.78%	1.00I 100.00%NM 77.22%	29.5%	2026-08-15 17:00

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