The School of Odds
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Loai Abushaar v George Staines

2026-09-30 00:55 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Loai Abushaar (Local)

Prediction 27.95%3.58fair odd
EV +8.74%
Edge +2.25%
Kelly +3.03%
Growth +0.265%

assuming max odds 3.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.76%27.95%27.95%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.403.273.8932.79%29.38%30.58%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

George Staines (Visit)

Prediction 72.05%1.39fair odd
EV -0.578%
Edge -0.418%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.85%72.05%72.05%75.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.281.3881.97%77.32%78.13%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Loai Abushaar (Local): 27.95%; George Staines (Visit): 72.05%. For Loai Abushaar (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.89, producing a positive expected value of +8.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.89I 25.71%NM 24.76%EV +8.74%E +2.25%K +3.03%G +0.265%1.28I 78.13%NM 75.24%EV -7.78%E -6.08%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-28 13:15
ReBet🎯3.27I 30.58%NM 27.17%EV -8.59%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.83%EV -12.10%E -9.92%K -55.02%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-28 13:14
FanDuel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -14.74%E -4.83%K -7.19%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -0.578%E -0.418%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-28 11:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎3.23I 30.96%NM 23.64%1.00I 100.00%NM 76.36%31.0%2026-09-28 13:15
Arbitrage (1 combination) +1.86%BetOnline.ag 3.89 (26.2%) / FanDuel 1.38 (73.8%)Show details
Loai Abushaar (Local)George Staines (Visit)Margin
BetOnline.ag🎯 3.89 (26.2%)FanDuel🎯 1.38 (73.8%)+1.86%