The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Liz Carmouche v Viviane Araujo

Kickoff: 2026-06-28 04:00 UTC

Final: Liz Carmouche 1–0 Viviane Araujo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Liz Carmouche (Local)

Prediction 61.18%1.63fair odd
EV +2.18%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +3.25%
Growth +0.071%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.93%61.18%61.76%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.541.541.6766.67%64.79%64.94%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Viviane Araujo (Visit)

Prediction 38.82%2.58fair odd
EV +2.86%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.73%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%38.82%38.24%42.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.472.402.6543.48%40.41%41.67%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Liz Carmouche (Local): 61.18%; Viviane Araujo (Visit): 38.82%. For Viviane Araujo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV +2.18%E +1.30%K +3.25%G +0.071%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -10.73%E -4.66%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.4%2026-06-28 02:59
FanDuel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -4.55%E -2.92%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -2.19%E -0.867%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-27 18:09
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.78%E -3.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-27 17:49
LeoVegas🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.78%E -3.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-27 17:49
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.78%E -3.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-27 17:49
Bally Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.78%E -3.75%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.84%E -2.85%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-27 17:49
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -8.22%E -5.48%K -16.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +2.86%E +1.08%K +1.73%G +0.050%4.4%2026-06-27 12:49
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.22%E -5.48%K -16.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.919%E +0.354%K +0.575%G +0.005%5.1%2026-06-28 01:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.22%E -5.48%K -16.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.919%E +0.354%K +0.575%G +0.005%5.1%2026-06-28 01:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.