The School of Odds
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Linton Vassell v Jose Augusto

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 20:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Linton Vassell (Local)

Prediction 53.94%1.85fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -3.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%53.94%53.94%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.771.771.8056.82%56.43%56.50%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jose Augusto (Visit)

Prediction 46.06%2.17fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.36%46.06%46.06%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.022.002.1250.00%49.53%50.00%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Linton Vassell (Local): 53.94%; Jose Augusto (Visit): 46.06%. For Jose Augusto (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.12, with an expected value of -2.36%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.90%E -1.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.58%E -2.72%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-20 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.52%E -2.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.89%E -3.94%K -7.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.52%E -2.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.89%E -3.94%K -7.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.52%E -2.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.89%E -3.94%K -7.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 17:00
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.52%E -2.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.89%E -3.94%K -7.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 17:00
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.52%E -2.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.89%E -3.94%K -7.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 17:00
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.52%E -2.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.89%E -3.94%K -7.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 17:00
Bally Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.52%E -2.55%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.89%E -3.94%K -7.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 17:00
FanDuel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -5.06%E -2.88%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -2.36%E -1.11%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-20 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.