Lewis McGrillen v Rafael do Nascimento

2026-07-18 22:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Lewis McGrillen (Local)

Prediction 70.29%1.42fair odd

EV -7.91%

Edge -6.04%

Kelly -25.53%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.29%70.29%70.29%70.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.311.311.311.3176%76%76%76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Rafael do Nascimento (Visit)

Prediction 29.71%3.37fair odd

EV -7.91%

Edge -2.55%

Kelly -3.77%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.71%29.71%29.71%29.71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.103.103.103.1032%32%32%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%EV -7.91%E -6.04%K -25.53%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -7.91%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-07-14 21:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.