The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lewis McGrillen v Rafael do Nascimento

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 01:05 UTC

Final: Lewis McGrillen 0–1 Rafael do Nascimento

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lewis McGrillen (Local)

Prediction 73.45%1.36fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -2.30%
Kelly -9.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.17%73.45%73.45%74.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.291.301.3279.37%77.32%76.92%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rafael do Nascimento (Visit)

Prediction 26.55%3.77fair odd
EV -0.453%
Edge -0.121%
Kelly -0.165%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.15%26.55%26.55%26.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.673.653.7527.78%27.27%27.40%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lewis McGrillen (Local): 73.45%; Rafael do Nascimento (Visit): 26.55%. For Rafael do Nascimento (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -0.453%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -3.04%E -2.30%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -4.43%E -1.23%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-18 21:14
FanDuel1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -4.51%E -3.47%K -15.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -3.11%E -0.851%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -7.45%E -5.91%K -28.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -0.453%E -0.121%K -0.165%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-18 12:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.