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Levi Rodrigues v Felipe Franco

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 22:50 UTC

Final: Levi Rodrigues 0–1 Felipe Franco

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Levi Rodrigues (Local)

Prediction 58.42%1.71fair odd
EV -1.28%
Edge -0.755%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%58.34%58.52%60.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.641.651.6962.50%60.91%60.61%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Felipe Franco (Visit)

Prediction 41.58%2.40fair odd
EV -0.201%
Edge -0.084%
Kelly -0.143%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.00%41.66%41.48%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.282.252.4045.45%43.85%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -1.28%E -0.755%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -7.27%E -3.26%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-18 15:25
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.44%E -1.46%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 00:05
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.44%E -1.46%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.52%E -3.87%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 18:05
BetRivers1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.03%E -1.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.27%E -3.26%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 00:05
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.03%E -1.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.27%E -3.26%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 00:05
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.03%E -1.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.27%E -3.26%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 00:05
LiveScore Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.03%E -1.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.27%E -3.26%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 00:05
Virgin Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.03%E -1.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.27%E -3.26%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 00:05
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.03%E -1.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.27%E -3.26%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 00:05
Bally Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.03%E -1.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.27%E -3.26%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 00:05
betPARX1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.03%E -1.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.27%E -3.26%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 00:05
ATG (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.03%E -1.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.27%E -3.26%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 00:05
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -3.61%E -2.19%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -2.70%E -1.15%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-18 22:45
Bovada1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -3.61%E -2.19%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -3.11%E -1.34%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-18 19:35
BetUS1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.61%E -2.19%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.36%E -1.90%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 22:10
Caesars1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.61%E -2.19%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.36%E -1.90%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 17:31
888sport1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.61%E -2.19%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 22:15
PointsBet (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.61%E -2.19%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 22:20
BetAnything1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.61%E -2.19%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 18:45
Pinnacle1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%EV -4.20%E -2.56%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%EV -1.03%E -0.434%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-18 22:40
Betr (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.20%E -2.56%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.52%E -3.87%K -7.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 20:40
FanDuel1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -4.78%E -2.93%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -2.70%E -1.15%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 18:10
Unibet (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.78%E -2.93%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.36%E -1.90%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 22:15
DraftKings1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -5.36%E -3.31%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -1.86%E -0.790%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 20:15
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.36%E -3.31%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -2.28%E -0.970%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 18:20
SportsBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.36%E -3.31%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.94%E -1.71%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-18 18:10
Bet Right1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.36%E -3.31%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.36%E -1.90%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 22:45
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.36%E -3.31%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 18:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.36%E -3.31%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.44%E -2.86%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 18:10
Betsson1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -6.53%E -4.08%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -0.201%E -0.084%K -0.143%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-18 20:35
NordicBet1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -6.53%E -4.08%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -0.201%E -0.084%K -0.143%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-18 20:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.53%E -4.08%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.28%E -0.970%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 18:20
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.53%E -4.08%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.36%E -1.90%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-18 20:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.70I 58.82%NM 58.74%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.26%0.1%2026-07-18 22:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-07-18 22:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-07-18 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-07-18 22:45
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-07-18 22:40
Novig1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-07-18 22:45
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-07-18 22:30
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-07-18 22:45
ProphetX1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.14%2.3%2026-07-18 22:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.96%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.19%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.4%2026-07-18 22:29