Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leonardo Damiani v Andrea Bicchi

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

69%

31%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leonardo Damiani (Local)

Prediction 68.89%1.45fair odd

EV +1.27%

Edge +0.862%

Kelly +2.70%

Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.97%68.89%68.89%68.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.441.441.4771.43%69.69%69.69%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Andrea Bicchi (Visit)

Prediction 31.11%3.21fair odd

EV -3.56%

Edge -1.15%

Kelly -1.69%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.11%31.11%31.11%37.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.802.803.1040.00%35.71%35.71%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leonardo Damiani (Local): 68.89%; Andrea Bicchi (Visit): 31.11%. For Leonardo Damiani (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.45. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Grosvenor	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV +1.27%E +0.862%K +2.70%G +0.034%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -22.22%E -8.89%K -14.81%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-16 14:25
BetOnline.ag	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.56%E -2.54%K -8.89%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -3.56%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-07-18 16:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.