The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Lazaro Dayron v Jacob Thrall

Kickoff: 2026-03-29 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lazaro Dayron (Local)

Prediction 92.23%1.08fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -2.11%
Kelly -37.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.06%92.23%91.29%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.031.031.0698.04%96.77%97.09%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jacob Thrall (Visit)

Prediction 7.77%12.87fair odd
EV +32.10%
Edge +1.89%
Kelly +2.01%
Growth +0.644%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.66%7.77%8.71%8.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.8012.6513.0017.009.26%7.91%7.69%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lazaro Dayron (Local): 92.23%; Jacob Thrall (Visit): 7.77%. For Jacob Thrall (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.87. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +32.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -5.93%E -5.81%K -296.30%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +32.10%E +1.89%K +2.01%G +0.644%3.9%2026-03-28 01:10
Unibet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.00%E -4.86%K -166.79%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.02%E +0.078%K +0.085%G +0.001%4.8%2026-03-27 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.00%E -4.86%K -166.79%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.02%E +0.078%K +0.085%G +0.001%4.8%2026-03-27 14:54
Grosvenor🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.00%E -4.86%K -166.79%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.02%E +0.078%K +0.085%G +0.001%4.8%2026-03-27 14:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.00%E -4.86%K -166.79%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.02%E +0.078%K +0.085%G +0.001%4.8%2026-03-27 14:54
LeoVegas🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.00%E -4.86%K -166.79%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.02%E +0.078%K +0.085%G +0.001%4.8%2026-03-27 14:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.00%E -4.86%K -166.79%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.02%E +0.078%K +0.085%G +0.001%4.8%2026-03-27 14:54
Bally Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.00%E -4.86%K -166.79%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +1.02%E +0.078%K +0.085%G +0.001%4.8%2026-03-27 14:55
BetMGM🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -3.16%E -3.01%K -63.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -14.52%E -1.32%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-27 02:19
Neds🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.00%E -4.86%K -166.79%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -14.52%E -1.32%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-27 02:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.00%E -4.86%K -166.79%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -14.52%E -1.32%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-27 02:20
FanDuel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 91.06%EV -2.24%E -2.11%K -37.28%G +0.000%10.80I 9.26%NM 8.94%EV -16.08%E -1.49%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-28 02:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.