The School of Odds

Laura Grzyb v Rayla Nascimento

2026-07-18 15:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Laura Grzyb (Local)

Prediction 68.76%1.45fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -9.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.27%68.76%68.76%68.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.341.381.401.4075%72%71%71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Rayla Nascimento (Visit)

Prediction 31.24%3.20fair odd
EV -7.86%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -4.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.24%31.24%31.24%33.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.752.822.752.9536%36%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.73%E -2.66%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.10%E -5.13%K -8.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 05:55
Grosvenor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -3.73%E -2.66%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.10%E -5.13%K -8.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 05:55
BetOnline.ag1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -7.86%E -5.86%K -23.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -7.86%E -2.66%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 05:57
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.