Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kyle Nelson v Cristian Pérez

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 01:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

26%

74%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kyle Nelson (Local)

Prediction 25.68%3.89fair odd

EV +1.18%

Edge +0.299%

Kelly +0.400%

Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.27%25.88%25.77%29.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.003.613.673.9433.33%27.73%27.21%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cristian Pérez (Visit)

Prediction 74.32%1.35fair odd

EV -1.90%

Edge -1.44%

Kelly -5.93%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.42%74.12%74.23%75.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.241.281.271.3280.65%78.32%78.74%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kyle Nelson (Local): 25.68%; Cristian Pérez (Visit): 74.32%. For Kyle Nelson (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.94, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.94I 25.38%NM 24.38%EV +1.18%E +0.299%K +0.400%G +0.005%	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.62%EV -5.61%E -4.42%K -20.79%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-18 01:14
ReBet🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV +0.150%E +0.038%K +0.052%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -4.87%E -3.80%K -17.39%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-18 01:00
Bovada🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV +0.150%E +0.038%K +0.052%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -4.87%E -3.80%K -17.39%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-18 01:28
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +0.150%E +0.038%K +0.052%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.36%E -5.04%K -24.45%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-16 16:55
Bet Right🎯	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV +0.150%E +0.038%K +0.052%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -7.10%E -5.68%K -28.40%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-18 01:10
BetUS🎯	3.88I 25.77%NM 24.66%EV -0.364%E -0.094%K -0.126%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.34%EV -5.61%E -4.42%K -20.79%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-18 01:15
NordicBet🎯	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -1.13%E -0.295%K -0.398%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -4.87%E -3.80%K -17.39%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-17 21:20
Pinnacle🎯	3.82I 26.18%NM 25.39%EV -1.90%E -0.499%K -0.675%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.61%EV -3.38%E -2.60%K -11.28%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-10-18 01:25
SportsBet🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -2.42%E -0.636%K -0.864%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.61%E -4.42%K -20.79%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-17 14:15
Coolbet🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -3.70%E -0.987%K -1.35%G +0.000%	1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -2.64%E -2.02%K -8.52%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-10-17 23:30
FanDuel🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.70%E -0.987%K -1.35%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.13%E -3.20%K -14.23%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-17 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.70%E -0.987%K -1.35%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.87%E -3.80%K -17.39%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-13 01:29
betPARX🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -3.70%E -0.987%K -1.35%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.61%E -4.42%K -20.79%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-15 23:49
LiveScore Bet🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -3.70%E -0.987%K -1.35%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.61%E -4.42%K -20.79%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-15 23:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -3.70%E -0.987%K -1.35%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.61%E -4.42%K -20.79%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-15 23:50
Betsson🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.70%E -0.987%K -1.35%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.36%E -5.04%K -24.45%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-17 21:20
Caesars🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -3.70%E -0.987%K -1.35%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.10%E -5.68%K -28.40%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-18 01:32
Betway🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.13%E -3.20%K -14.23%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-13 17:10
DraftKings🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.87%E -3.80%K -17.39%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-18 01:32
Betr (AU)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.87%E -3.80%K -17.39%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-15 01:00
Unibet (UK)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.10%E -5.68%K -28.40%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-10-18 01:32
Betclic (FR)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.10%E -5.68%K -28.40%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-10-16 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.10%E -5.68%K -28.40%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-10-18 01:33
Winamax (FR)🎯	3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -8.84%E -2.49%K -3.47%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 74.11%EV -7.84%E -6.32%K -32.68%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-10-18 01:00
Paddy Power🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.10%E -5.68%K -28.40%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-14 12:25
Sky Bet🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.10%E -5.68%K -28.40%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-14 12:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.10%E -5.68%K -28.40%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-17 22:05
Unibet🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -16.54%E -5.09%K -7.35%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -1.90%E -1.44%K -5.93%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-18 01:33
ATG (SE)🎯	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -16.54%E -5.09%K -7.35%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -1.90%E -1.44%K -5.93%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-18 01:33
TABtouch🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -19.11%E -6.07%K -8.89%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -1.90%E -1.44%K -5.93%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-10-18 01:33
Grosvenor🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -19.11%E -6.07%K -8.89%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -1.90%E -1.44%K -5.93%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-10-18 01:33
Bally Bet🎯	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -19.11%E -6.07%K -8.89%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -1.90%E -1.44%K -5.93%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-10-18 01:33
BetRivers🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -20.39%E -6.58%K -9.71%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -3.38%E -2.60%K -11.28%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-10-18 01:33
PMU (FR)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.58%EV -22.96%E -7.65%K -11.48%G +0.000%	1.26I 79.37%NM 70.42%EV -6.36%E -5.04%K -24.45%G +0.000%	12.7%	2026-10-18 01:33

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	4.18I 23.92%NM 23.86%	1.31I 76.34%NM 76.14%	0.3%	2026-10-18 00:15
Polymarket◎	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%	1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%	0.8%	2026-10-18 01:15
Novig◎	111.11I 0.90%NM 0.89%	1.00I 100.00%NM 99.11%	0.9%	2026-10-18 01:33
Kalshi◎	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.99%	1.00I 100.00%NM 99.01%	1.0%	2026-10-18 01:35
Matchbook◎	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%	1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%	3.0%	2026-10-18 01:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	17.50I 5.71%NM 5.46%	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.54%	4.7%	2026-10-18 01:35
ProphetX◎	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%	5.1%	2026-10-18 01:33
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	3.60I 27.78%NM 22.25%	1.03I 97.09%NM 77.75%	24.9%	2026-10-18 01:36
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%	1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%	94.2%	2026-10-18 01:34