Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kunle Lawal v Eliezer Kubanza

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

11%

89%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kunle Lawal (Local)

Prediction 10.83%9.24fair odd

EV +19.10%

Edge +1.74%

Kelly +1.91%

Growth +0.365%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.71%10.83%10.83%12.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.408.978.7511.0013.51%11.14%11.43%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Eliezer Kubanza (Visit)

Prediction 89.17%1.12fair odd

EV -1.91%

Edge -1.74%

Kelly -19.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

87.06%89.17%89.17%91.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.051.071.071.1095.24%93.24%93.46%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kunle Lawal (Local): 10.83%; Eliezer Kubanza (Visit): 89.17%. For Kunle Lawal (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.24. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +19.10%E +1.74%K +1.91%G +0.365%	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -6.37%E -6.07%K -127.38%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-04-09 18:38
Neds🎯	8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV -5.26%E -0.601%K -0.679%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -4.59%E -4.29%K -65.51%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-04-09 15:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV -5.26%E -0.601%K -0.679%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -4.59%E -4.29%K -65.51%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-04-09 15:00
FanDuel🎯	7.40I 13.51%NM 12.94%EV -19.88%E -2.69%K -3.11%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 87.06%EV -1.91%E -1.74%K -19.10%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-04-09 14:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.