The School of Odds
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Kody Steele v Noah Gugnon

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:30 UTC

Final: Kody Steele 1–0 Noah Gugnon

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kody Steele (Local)

Prediction 58.14%1.72fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%58.20%58.23%59.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.631.621.6967.11%61.36%61.73%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Noah Gugnon (Visit)

Prediction 41.86%2.39fair odd
EV -0.373%
Edge -0.157%
Kelly -0.270%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.35%41.80%41.77%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.272.302.3848.08%44.04%43.48%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kody Steele (Local): 58.14%; Noah Gugnon (Visit): 41.86%. For Noah Gugnon (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.38, with an expected value of -0.373%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -1.74%E -1.03%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -10.00%E -4.65%K -8.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 14:00
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -2.33%E -1.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-24 14:25
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -2.33%E -1.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -4.98%E -2.19%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 13:58
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.33%E -1.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -5.81%E -2.58%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 13:54
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -2.33%E -1.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -6.23%E -2.78%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 13:55
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -2.33%E -1.38%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -8.74%E -4.01%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 14:10
ReBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -2.91%E -1.74%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -5.40%E -2.39%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 13:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -3.49%E -2.10%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -5.81%E -2.58%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 13:35
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.07%E -2.47%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 14:20
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.07%E -2.47%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.07%E -2.47%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.81%E -2.58%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.65%E -2.84%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.81%E -2.58%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.65%E -2.84%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.91%E -3.59%K -6.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 14:00
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.84%EV -5.23%E -3.21%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.16%EV -2.47%E -1.06%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-22 19:09
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.81%E -3.59%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.63%E -0.693%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 15:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.59%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 16:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.59%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 16:45
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.59%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 16:45
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.59%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 16:45
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.59%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.59%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 16:45
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.59%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 16:45
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.59%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 16:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.59%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-20 16:45
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.81%E -3.59%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 12:45
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -6.39%E -3.97%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -0.373%E -0.157%K -0.270%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 14:25
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.39%E -3.97%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.72%E -1.62%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-22 19:09
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.72%E -5.55%K -15.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.81%E -2.58%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 10:48
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.72%E -5.55%K -15.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.81%E -2.58%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 10:54
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.72%E -5.55%K -15.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.81%E -2.58%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 11:04
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 58.26%EV -13.37%E -8.97%K -27.29%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 41.74%EV -12.93%E -6.22%K -11.97%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-20 16:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.74%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.26%0.1%2026-10-24 14:20
Matchbook◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-10-24 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-10-24 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-10-24 14:25
Novig◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.88%2.35I 42.55%NM 42.12%1.0%2026-10-24 14:25
Polymarket◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-10-24 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57%1.2%2026-10-24 14:25
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%2.1%2026-10-24 14:25
ProphetX◎1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%4.0%2026-10-24 14:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.96%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.19%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.4%2026-10-23 09:45