Language:English
King Green v Jeremy Stephens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
King Green (Local)
Prediction 78.03%1.28fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -9.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.90%78.03%78.02%79.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.231.241.2583.33%81.21%80.65%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jeremy Stephens (Visit)
Prediction 21.97%4.55fair odd
EV +4.36%
Edge +0.918%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.051%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.17%21.97%21.98%25.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.204.134.7527.03%23.81%24.24%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: King Green (Local): 78.03%; Jeremy Stephens (Visit): 21.97%. For Jeremy Stephens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.55. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.36%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +4.36%E +0.918%K +1.16%G +0.051% | 4.4% | 2026-05-10 00:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.47%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.53%EV -0.693%E -0.153%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-09 22:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.61%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.39%EV -0.693%E -0.153%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-10 00:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.13%E -0.252%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 00:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.84%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.13%E -0.252%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 01:04 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.13%E -0.252%K -0.323%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 23:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.33%E -0.757%K -0.979%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 00:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.33%E -0.757%K -0.979%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 00:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -3.33%E -0.757%K -0.979%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 00:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -3.33%E -0.757%K -0.979%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 15:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -5.53%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-09 16:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -6.62%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 01:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -6.62%E -1.56%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 20:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.02%E -3.27%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.72%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 02:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.84%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.72%E -1.84%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.85%EV -2.46%E -1.97%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.15%EV -8.82%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-09 02:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -4.80%E -3.94%K -21.84%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -8.82%E -2.13%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-09 20:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:38 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 05:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -6.36%E -5.30%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -9.92%E -2.42%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-09 20:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.46%E -1.97%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-09 13:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -12.12%E -3.03%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 05:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -2.46%E -1.97%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -17.61%E -4.70%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-08 04:33 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -2.46%E -1.97%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -17.61%E -4.70%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-08 04:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -3.24%E -2.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -18.71%E -5.06%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-10 01:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.41% | 4.86I 20.58%NM 20.59% | -0.1% | 2026-05-10 01:14 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-05-10 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-05-10 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.3% | 2026-05-10 01:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.60% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40% | 1.5% | 2026-05-10 01:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.77% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 20.23% | 1.9% | 2026-05-10 01:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.48% | 4.46I 22.42%NM 20.67% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-05-09 21:09 |