Language:English
King Green v Esteban Ribovics
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
King Green (Local)
Prediction 36.20%2.76fair odd
EV +1.35%
Edge +0.482%
Kelly +0.750%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.96%36.19%36.14%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.622.652.8041.67%38.16%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Esteban Ribovics (Visit)
Prediction 63.80%1.57fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -4.49%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%63.81%63.86%66.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.481.481.5373.53%67.49%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: King Green (Local): 36.20%; Esteban Ribovics (Visit): 63.80%. For King Green (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.35%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +1.35%E +0.482%K +0.750%G +0.010% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -8.12%E -5.64%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 01:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.53%EV -0.821%E -0.300%K -0.472%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.47%EV -3.66%E -2.42%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-10-04 01:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -2.27%E -0.840%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.93%E -3.31%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 01:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -2.99%E -1.12%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -10.04%E -7.12%K -24.48%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-02 22:43 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.66%E -2.42%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-04 01:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.66%E -2.42%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-04 01:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.66%E -2.42%K -7.17%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-04 01:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.29%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 18:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.57%E -3.76%K -11.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.21%E -4.22%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-04 00:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.08%E -1.54%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.21%E -4.22%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-04 01:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -4.80%E -1.83%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -8.12%E -5.64%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-02 19:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -5.17%E -1.97%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -3.02%E -1.99%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-03 19:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -5.17%E -1.97%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -3.02%E -1.99%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-03 19:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.38%E -1.56%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-04 01:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.38%E -1.56%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-04 01:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.29%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 18:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.29%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 19:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.89%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.21%E -4.22%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-03 18:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -7.70%E -3.02%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -4.93%E -3.31%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-03 19:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.51%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.29%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 01:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.51%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.29%E -2.86%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 01:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.39%EV -9.51%E -3.80%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -8.76%E -6.13%K -20.37%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-04 01:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -11.32%E -4.62%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -6.21%E -4.22%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-03 18:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.17%EV -13.13%E -5.47%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 63.83%EV -13.23%E -9.73%K -36.74%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-10-03 17:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.75I 36.36%NM 36.34% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.66% | 0.1% | 2026-10-04 01:14 |
| Novig◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 0.6% | 2026-10-04 01:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 01:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.03% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.97% | 1.9% | 2026-10-04 01:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26% | 4.7% | 2026-10-04 01:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.32% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.81% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 18:20 |