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Khaos Williams v Roberto Soldic

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 00:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Khaos Williams (Local)

Prediction 35.42%2.82fair odd
EV +6.26%
Edge +2.09%
Kelly +3.13%
Growth +0.196%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%35.03%35.48%36.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.692.653.0041.67%37.15%37.74%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Roberto Soldic (Visit)

Prediction 64.58%1.55fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -4.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.70%64.97%64.52%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.461.481.5173.53%68.53%67.57%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Khaos Williams (Local): 35.42%; Roberto Soldic (Visit): 64.58%. For Khaos Williams (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.26%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +6.26%E +2.09%K +3.13%G +0.196%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -9.59%E -6.85%K -23.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-03 13:26
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +4.49%E +1.52%K +2.30%G +0.103%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -9.59%E -6.85%K -23.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 13:30
FanDuel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV +2.01%E +0.698%K +1.07%G +0.022%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -7.01%E -4.86%K -15.92%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 00:40
ReBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.59%E -0.943%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-03 17:55
Caesars🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.59%E -0.943%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-03 00:19
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -2.59%E -0.943%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -9.59%E -6.85%K -23.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-04 00:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -2.59%E -0.943%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -9.59%E -6.85%K -23.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-04 00:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.22%EV -2.95%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.78%EV -3.78%E -2.53%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-04 00:31
Marathon Bet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.29%EV -2.95%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.71%EV -7.65%E -5.35%K -17.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:40
Pinnacle🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.61%EV -3.30%E -1.21%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 64.39%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-04 00:35
BetAnything🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.48%EV -4.01%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.52%EV -3.78%E -2.53%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-04 00:35
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.13%E -2.09%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-04 00:05
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.78%E -2.53%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-03 23:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.07%E -3.45%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-03 23:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.36%E -4.39%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 17:55
Fliff🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.36%E -1.62%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -7.01%E -4.86%K -15.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-03 23:50
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -2.48%E -1.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-03 00:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 17:10
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 17:10
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 17:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 18:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 17:10
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 17:10
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 17:10
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 17:10
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 00:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.14%E -2.32%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.42%E -2.99%K -9.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-03 17:10
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -6.84%E -2.60%K -4.20%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -7.01%E -4.86%K -15.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-03 22:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.52%EV -7.65%E -5.35%K -17.79%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-03 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.91%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -9.59%E -6.85%K -23.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-04 00:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%EV -8.62%E -3.34%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.18%EV -7.01%E -4.86%K -15.92%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 00:34
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.17%EV -14.99%E -6.25%K -10.71%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 63.83%EV -12.17%E -8.95%K -33.81%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-03 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.85I 35.09%NM 35.08%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.92%0.0%2026-10-04 00:35
Novig◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68%0.4%2026-10-04 00:40
Matchbook◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%0.5%2026-10-03 23:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-10-04 00:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-10-04 00:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-10-04 00:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 33.56%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.57%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87%6.8%2026-10-03 12:50