Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Khamzat Chimaev v Tyron Woodley

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

93%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Khamzat Chimaev (Local)

Prediction 92.72%1.08fair odd

EV -5.42%

Edge -5.31%

Kelly -271.04%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

92.72%92.72%92.72%92.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.021.021.0298.04%98.04%98.04%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tyron Woodley (Visit)

Prediction 7.28%13.75fair odd

EV -5.42%

Edge -0.417%

Kelly -0.452%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.28%7.28%7.28%7.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

13.0013.0013.0013.007.69%7.69%7.69%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Khamzat Chimaev (Local): 92.72%; Tyron Woodley (Visit): 7.28%. For Tyron Woodley (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 13.00, with an expected value of -5.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -271.04%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -5.42%E -0.417%K -0.452%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 22:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.