Language:English
Khamzat Chimaev v Sean Strickland
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Khamzat Chimaev (Local)
Prediction 79.83%1.25fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -11.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.90%79.86%79.90%82.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.191.191.2286.21%84.05%84.03%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sean Strickland (Visit)
Prediction 20.17%4.96fair odd
EV +12.93%
Edge +2.31%
Kelly +2.81%
Growth +0.363%
assuming max odds 5.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.16%20.14%20.10%22.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.814.805.6023.26%20.79%20.83%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Khamzat Chimaev (Local): 79.83%; Sean Strickland (Visit): 20.17%. For Sean Strickland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.96. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.93%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -7.39%E -6.37%K -46.20%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV +12.93%E +2.31%K +2.81%G +0.363% | 4.1% | 2026-05-04 15:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -7.39%E -6.37%K -46.20%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV +12.93%E +2.31%K +2.81%G +0.363% | 4.1% | 2026-05-04 15:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 3.3% | 2026-05-09 22:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 23:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -7.39%E -6.37%K -46.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +0.827%E +0.165%K +0.207%G +0.002% | 6.2% | 2026-05-06 12:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.68%EV -5.00%E -4.20%K -26.30%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.32%EV +0.222%E +0.045%K +0.056%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 01:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.68%EV -5.00%E -4.20%K -26.30%G +0.000% | 4.97I 20.12%NM 19.32%EV +0.222%E +0.045%K +0.056%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 01:23 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -3.21%E -0.668%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 01:18 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -3.21%E -0.668%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.00%E -4.20%K -26.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -3.21%E -0.668%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-03 00:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -3.21%E -0.668%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 02:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.56%EV -2.60%E -2.13%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV -4.21%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-10 03:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.70%EV -3.40%E -2.81%K -16.19%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.30%EV -4.21%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-10 03:01 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -4.21%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-09 13:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -4.21%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-09 02:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.00%E -4.20%K -26.30%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.21%E -0.887%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -3.40%E -2.81%K -16.19%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -5.22%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-10 03:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -3.40%E -2.81%K -16.19%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -5.22%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-10 03:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -5.22%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 03:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -5.00%E -4.20%K -26.30%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -6.23%E -1.34%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-08 23:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -7.24%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 03:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -7.39%E -6.37%K -46.20%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -7.24%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-08 21:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.00%E -4.20%K -26.30%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -8.25%E -1.81%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-09 14:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -3.40%E -2.81%K -16.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-10 02:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 13:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 02:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 21:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 21:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 13:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.26%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 23:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.80%E -4.91%K -32.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -11.27%E -2.56%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-09 23:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -2.60%E -2.13%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -13.29%E -3.09%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 01:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 81.31% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 18.69% | -0.0% | 2026-05-10 03:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 03:09 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-05-10 03:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-05-10 02:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-05-10 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-05-10 02:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.17% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.83% | 1.0% | 2026-05-04 18:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.85% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 19.15% | 1.4% | 2026-05-10 03:09 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.53% | 5.81I 17.21%NM 16.84% | 60.00I 1.67%NM 1.63% | 2.2% | 2026-05-10 03:09 |