The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Khamzat Chimaev v Robbie Lawler

2026-10-23 22:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Khamzat Chimaev (Local)

Prediction 91.51%1.09fair odd
EV -6.66%
Edge -6.53%
Kelly -332.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.51%91.51%91.51%91.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.021.021.0298.04%98.04%98.04%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Robbie Lawler (Visit)

Prediction 8.49%11.78fair odd
EV -6.66%
Edge -0.605%
Kelly -0.666%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.49%8.49%8.49%8.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0011.0011.0011.009.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Khamzat Chimaev (Local): 91.51%; Robbie Lawler (Visit): 8.49%. For Robbie Lawler (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.78. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 11.00, with an expected value of -6.66%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -6.66%E -6.53%K -332.78%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -6.66%E -0.605%K -0.666%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 03:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.