Khamzat Chimaev v Paulo Henrique Costa

2027-01-01 03:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

80%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Khamzat Chimaev (Local)

Prediction 79.83%1.25fair odd

EV -4.20%

Edge -3.50%

Kelly -21.01%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

79.83%79.83%79.83%79.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.201.201.201.2083%83%83%83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Paulo Henrique Costa (Visit)

Prediction 20.17%4.96fair odd

EV -4.20%

Edge -0.885%

Kelly -1.12%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.17%20.17%20.17%20.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

4.754.754.754.7521%21%21%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.20%E -3.50%K -21.01%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -4.20%E -0.885%K -1.12%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-05-12 19:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.