The School of Odds

Khamzat Chimaev v Nassourdine Imavov

2026-12-31 19:35 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Khamzat Chimaev (Local)

Prediction 80.00%1.25fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -20.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.00%80.00%80.00%80.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.201.201.201.2083%83%83%83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Nassourdine Imavov (Visit)

Prediction 20.00%5.00fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -0.833%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.804.804.804.8021%21%21%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.00%E -3.33%K -20.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -4.00%E -0.833%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-20 05:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.