Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Khamzat Chimaev v Gilbert Burns

2026-09-19 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

93%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Khamzat Chimaev (Local)

Prediction 92.72%1.08fair odd

EV -5.42%

Edge -5.31%

Kelly -271.04%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

92.72%92.72%92.72%92.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.021.021.0298.04%98.04%98.04%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gilbert Burns (Visit)

Prediction 7.28%13.75fair odd

EV -5.42%

Edge -0.417%

Kelly -0.452%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.28%7.28%7.28%7.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

13.0013.0013.0013.007.69%7.69%7.69%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Khamzat Chimaev (Local): 92.72%; Gilbert Burns (Visit): 7.28%. For Gilbert Burns (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.75. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 13.00, with an expected value of -5.42%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.42%E -5.31%K -271.04%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -5.42%E -0.417%K -0.452%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-15 20:33

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.