Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kevin Holland v Jacobe Smith

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kevin Holland (Local)

Prediction 39.79%2.51fair odd

EV +19.37%

Edge +6.46%

Kelly +9.69%

Growth +1.88%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.19%38.75%39.74%40.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.462.403.0045.45%40.66%41.67%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jacobe Smith (Visit)

Prediction 60.21%1.66fair odd

EV -2.46%

Edge -1.52%

Kelly -3.97%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.13%61.25%60.26%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.531.551.6273.53%65.16%64.52%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betway	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +19.37%E +6.46%K +9.69%G +1.88%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -18.11%E -13.32%K -50.32%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-09 07:50
PlayUp	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +15.39%E +5.31%K +8.10%G +1.25%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -15.71%E -11.22%K -39.27%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-09 23:45
Betclic (FR)	2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -1.32%E -0.532%K -0.892%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.63%EV -10.89%E -7.36%K -22.69%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-09 15:04
BetOnline.ag	2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11%EV -2.12%E -0.860%K -1.45%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89%EV -4.87%E -3.08%K -8.39%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-07-09 15:00
BetUS	2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -3.71%E -1.53%K -2.61%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -4.27%E -2.68%K -7.23%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-09 14:59
NordicBet	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.50%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.28%E -4.73%K -13.48%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-09 18:59
Betsson	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.50%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.28%E -4.73%K -13.48%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-09 18:59
DraftKings	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -6.09%E -2.58%K -4.48%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -2.46%E -1.52%K -3.97%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-09 16:49
888sport	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.49%E -2.76%K -4.81%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.66%E -2.29%K -6.11%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-09 23:24
PointsBet (AU)	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.49%E -2.76%K -4.81%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.66%E -2.29%K -6.11%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-09 23:20
Unibet (UK)	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.49%E -2.76%K -4.81%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.67%E -4.31%K -12.14%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-09 16:45
Betr (AU)	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.48%E -3.69%K -6.52%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.27%E -2.68%K -7.23%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-09 23:29
Winamax (FR)	2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.46%E -5.66%K -10.38%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 59.46%EV -9.69%E -6.46%K -19.37%G +0.000%	12.1%	2026-07-09 16:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket	2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%	4.1%	2026-07-09 23:55
Novig	2.74I 36.50%NM 26.74%	1.00I 100.00%NM 73.26%	36.5%	2026-07-09 14:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	3.04I 32.89%NM 30.79%	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.38%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%	6.8%	2026-07-08 18:24