The School of Odds
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Kevin Caperna v Diego Giangirolami

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 18:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kevin Caperna (Local)

Prediction 48.04%2.08fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -4.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.04%48.04%48.04%51.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.881.851.9954.05%53.05%54.05%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Diego Giangirolami (Visit)

Prediction 51.96%1.92fair odd
EV +3.92%
Edge +1.96%
Kelly +3.92%
Growth +0.153%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.05%51.96%51.96%51.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.891.852.0054.35%53.05%54.05%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kevin Caperna (Local): 48.04%; Diego Giangirolami (Visit): 51.96%. For Diego Giangirolami (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
ReBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -11.12%E -6.01%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV +3.92%E +1.96%K +3.92%G +0.153%4.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -11.12%E -6.01%K -13.09%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -3.88%E -2.10%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 14:25
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -11.12%E -6.01%K -13.09%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -3.88%E -2.10%K -4.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-17 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -4.40%E -2.21%K -4.44%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -4.40%E -2.39%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-17 16:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.