Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kevin Caperna v Diego Giangirolami

2026-10-17 18:35 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

53%

47%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kevin Caperna (Local)

Prediction 53.25%1.88fair odd

EV -4.16%

Edge -2.31%

Kelly -5.19%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.25%53.25%53.25%54.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.721.751.721.8058.14%57.25%58.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Diego Giangirolami (Visit)

Prediction 46.75%2.14fair odd

EV -4.16%

Edge -2.03%

Kelly -3.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.99%46.75%46.75%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.022.032.022.0549.50%49.26%49.50%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kevin Caperna (Local): 53.25%; Diego Giangirolami (Visit): 46.75%. For Kevin Caperna (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.88. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.80, with an expected value of -4.16%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.16%E -2.31%K -5.19%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.16%E -2.03%K -3.96%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-10-16 21:59
Unibet🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -8.42%E -4.89%K -11.69%G +0.000%	2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%EV -5.56%E -2.75%K -5.45%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-16 14:25
Grosvenor🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -8.42%E -4.89%K -11.69%G +0.000%	2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%EV -5.56%E -2.75%K -5.45%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-16 14:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.