Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ketlen Souza v Ariane Carnelossi

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 21:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

75%

25%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ketlen Souza (Local)

Prediction 74.56%1.34fair odd

EV -1.59%

Edge -1.20%

Kelly -4.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.03%74.48%74.66%75.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.291.291.3278.74%77.50%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ariane Carnelossi (Visit)

Prediction 25.44%3.93fair odd

EV +0.503%

Edge +0.127%

Kelly +0.171%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.33%25.52%25.34%27.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.353.663.653.9529.85%27.34%27.40%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ketlen Souza (Local): 74.56%; Ariane Carnelossi (Visit): 25.44%. For Ariane Carnelossi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.503%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
NordicBet🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -5.31%E -4.18%K -19.68%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV +0.503%E +0.127%K +0.171%G +0.001%	4.1%	2026-06-06 15:29
Betsson🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -5.31%E -4.18%K -19.68%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV +0.503%E +0.127%K +0.171%G +0.001%	4.1%	2026-06-06 15:28
Caesars🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -5.31%E -4.18%K -19.68%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -0.769%E -0.197%K -0.265%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-06-06 20:48
Pinnacle🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 74.81%EV -3.08%E -2.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%	3.86I 25.91%NM 25.19%EV -1.79%E -0.463%K -0.625%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-06-06 19:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.90%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -2.04%E -0.530%K -0.716%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-06-06 19:59
Coolbet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.31%E -0.872%K -1.18%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-06-06 13:59
DraftKings🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.57%E -3.57%K -16.31%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.31%E -0.872%K -1.18%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-06-06 19:49
BetUS🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.61%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.79I 26.39%NM 25.39%EV -3.57%E -0.941%K -1.28%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-06-06 20:00
Bovada🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.59%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-06-06 12:16
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.57%E -3.57%K -16.31%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.59%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-06 19:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.57%E -3.57%K -16.31%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -4.59%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-06 11:19
PlayUp🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.31%E -4.18%K -19.68%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.86%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-06 20:10
Virgin Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-06 20:39
TABtouch🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-06 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-06 20:39
LeoVegas🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-06 20:40
Grosvenor🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-06 20:39
Unibet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.13%E -1.95%K -2.69%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-06 20:39
FanDuel🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -2.33%E -1.78%K -7.52%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-06-06 01:10
888sport🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-06 20:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.82%E -2.96%K -13.18%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-06 20:39
Betr (AU)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.57%E -3.57%K -16.31%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.40%E -2.33%K -3.23%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-06-06 20:09
SportsBet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -3.08%E -2.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%	3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -9.17%E -2.57%K -3.57%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-06-06 01:09
Bet Right🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.08%E -2.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -9.67%E -2.73%K -3.79%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-06 13:49
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.08%E -2.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -10.95%E -3.13%K -4.38%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-06-05 19:20
Neds🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -1.59%E -1.20%K -4.96%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -13.49%E -3.97%K -5.62%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-06-06 20:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -1.59%E -1.20%K -4.96%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -13.49%E -3.97%K -5.62%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-06-06 20:49
Paddy Power🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.08%E -2.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -13.49%E -3.97%K -5.62%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-06 01:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.08%E -2.37%K -10.26%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -13.49%E -3.97%K -5.62%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-06 09:49
BetAnything🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -4.57%E -3.57%K -16.31%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -14.76%E -4.41%K -6.28%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-06-06 20:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 75.87%	4.15I 24.10%NM 24.13%	-0.1%	2026-06-06 20:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81%	3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19%	0.5%	2026-06-06 20:59
Novig◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%	0.8%	2026-06-06 21:00
Kalshi◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%	0.8%	2026-06-06 20:49
Matchbook◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%	0.8%	2026-06-06 20:59
ProphetX◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 74.95%	3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%	1.1%	2026-06-06 20:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.31I 76.34%NM 75.10%	3.95I 25.32%NM 24.90%	1.7%	2026-06-06 20:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.31I 76.34%NM 74.86%	3.90I 25.64%NM 25.14%	2.0%	2026-06-06 20:49

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 71.44%	3.46I 28.90%NM 26.64%	48.00I 2.08%NM 1.92%	8.5%	2026-06-06 13:59