Language:English
Kennedy Nzechukwu v Shamil Gaziev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kennedy Nzechukwu (Local)
Prediction 46.80%2.14fair odd
EV +0.619%
Edge +0.288%
Kelly +0.538%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.16%46.94%46.75%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.032.002.1553.19%49.27%50.00%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Shamil Gaziev (Visit)
Prediction 53.20%1.88fair odd
EV +2.68%
Edge +1.39%
Kelly +2.88%
Growth +0.077%
assuming max odds 1.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%53.06%53.25%55.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.791.801.9358.82%55.82%55.56%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kennedy Nzechukwu (Local): 46.80%; Shamil Gaziev (Visit): 53.20%. For Shamil Gaziev (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.93, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.68%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -9.68%E -5.01%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV +2.68%E +1.39%K +2.88%G +0.077% | 3.6% | 2026-08-22 23:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -8.74%E -4.48%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -0.515%E -0.275%K -0.592%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 23:07 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%EV -3.13%E -1.51%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -2.64%E -1.44%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-22 23:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.64%E -1.44%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-22 12:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.18%E -1.74%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-22 12:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.18%E -1.74%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-22 22:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.71%E -2.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.71%E -2.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.71%E -2.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.71%E -2.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.71%E -2.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.71%E -2.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-22 18:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.71%E -2.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.71%E -2.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.06%E -1.98%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.24%E -2.36%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-22 22:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.06%E -1.98%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.24%E -2.36%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-22 02:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.24%E -2.36%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 12:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.24%E -2.36%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 15:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.24%E -2.36%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 15:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.24%E -2.36%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 18:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -2.66%E -1.28%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -4.77%E -2.67%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-22 22:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -3.13%E -1.51%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.77%E -2.67%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-22 23:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -2.66%E -1.28%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -5.30%E -2.98%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-22 22:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -2.66%E -1.28%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -5.30%E -2.98%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-22 22:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.06%E -1.98%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.30%E -2.98%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 23:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.06%E -1.98%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.84%E -3.30%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 19:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.40%E -3.20%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.84%E -3.30%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-22 19:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.06%E -1.98%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -6.37%E -3.62%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-22 19:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.06%E -1.98%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.90%E -3.94%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 02:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +0.619%E +0.288%K +0.538%G +0.003% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -7.43%E -4.27%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-22 19:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.72%E -0.820%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.96%E -4.60%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 22:38 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.72%E -0.820%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.96%E -4.60%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 22:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.72%E -0.820%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.96%E -4.60%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-22 22:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.78%EV -12.02%E -6.39%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.22%EV -8.50%E -4.94%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-22 19:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV +0.619%E +0.288%K +0.538%G +0.003% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -9.56%E -5.62%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 23:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 46.15% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.85% | -0.2% | 2026-08-22 23:10 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.15I 46.51%NM 46.52% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.48% | -0.0% | 2026-08-22 22:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-08-22 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-08-22 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02% | 1.2% | 2026-08-22 23:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02% | 1.2% | 2026-08-22 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.85% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.15% | 1.5% | 2026-08-22 23:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 43.65% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.6% | 2026-08-22 22:35 |