Language:English
Kelvin Gastelum v Vicente Luque
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kelvin Gastelum (Local)
Prediction 70.16%1.43fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -8.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%70.35%70.14%72.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.361.3876.92%73.98%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vicente Luque (Visit)
Prediction 29.84%3.35fair odd
EV +1.46%
Edge +0.430%
Kelly +0.609%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.97%29.65%29.86%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.153.4033.33%31.39%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kelvin Gastelum (Local): 70.16%; Vicente Luque (Visit): 29.84%. For Vicente Luque (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.46%.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.69%E -5.03%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV +1.46%E +0.430%K +0.609%G +0.009% | 4.6% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.39%E -5.60%K -23.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +1.46%E +0.430%K +0.609%G +0.009% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.39%E -5.60%K -23.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +1.46%E +0.430%K +0.609%G +0.009% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -5.99%E -4.47%K -17.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -0.030%E -0.009%K -0.013%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.58%EV -3.18%E -2.31%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.42%EV -1.22%E -0.370%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.69%E -5.03%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.52%E -0.461%K -0.662%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -3.18%E -2.31%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -3.01%E -0.927%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.01%E -0.927%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-11 22:03 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.69%E -5.03%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -3.01%E -0.927%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -8.79%E -6.76%K -29.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -3.01%E -0.927%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -8.79%E -6.76%K -29.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -3.01%E -0.927%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46%EV -5.29%E -3.92%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -3.91%E -1.21%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -3.88%E -2.83%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -3.88%E -2.83%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.29%E -3.92%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.51%E -1.41%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.18%E -2.31%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.29%E -3.92%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -6.69%E -5.03%K -20.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -6.00%E -1.90%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.88%E -2.83%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:13 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.88%E -2.83%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -7.39%E -5.60%K -23.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.49%E -2.42%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.58%E -3.37%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.29%E -3.92%K -15.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -10.47%E -3.49%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.98% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 27.02% | 0.0% | 2026-04-11 22:09 |
| Novig◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.95% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 29.05% | 0.7% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75% | 1.0% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87% | 3.4% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |