The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Karol Rosa v Luana Santos

Kickoff: 2026-06-20 22:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Karol Rosa (Local)

Prediction 32.79%3.05fair odd
EV +326.31%
Edge +25.10%
Kelly +27.19%
Growth +88.73%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.28%31.86%35.20%51.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.835.313.1913.0054.64%18.82%31.35%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luana Santos (Visit)

Prediction 67.21%1.49fair odd
EV +29.71%
Edge +15.39%
Kelly +31.95%
Growth +9.49%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.93%68.14%64.80%92.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.471.441.9398.04%68.26%69.69%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karol Rosa (Local): 32.79%; Luana Santos (Visit): 67.21%. For Karol Rosa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +326.31%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +326.31%E +25.10%K +27.19%G +88.73%1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -31.45%E -30.83%K -1572.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-20 21:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +260.72%E +23.70%K +26.07%G +67.98%1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -29.43%E -28.03%K -588.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-20 21:49
TABtouch🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +260.72%E +23.70%K +26.07%G +67.98%1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -30.78%E -29.88%K -1025.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-20 21:50
Unibet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +227.93%E +22.79%K +25.33%G +57.72%1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -28.76%E -27.13%K -479.34%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-20 21:49
Grosvenor🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +227.93%E +22.79%K +25.33%G +57.72%1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -29.43%E -28.03%K -588.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-20 21:49
NordicBet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV +211.53%E +22.27%K +24.89%G +52.64%1.03I 97.09%NM 90.22%EV -30.78%E -29.88%K -1025.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-20 21:50
LeoVegas🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.78%EV +211.53%E +22.27%K +24.89%G +52.64%1.03I 97.09%NM 90.22%EV -30.78%E -29.88%K -1025.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-20 21:49
Fliff🎯8.85I 11.30%NM 10.61%EV +190.22%E +21.49%K +24.23%G +46.09%1.05I 95.24%NM 89.39%EV -29.43%E -28.03%K -588.65%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-20 21:49
Betsson🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV +178.74%E +21.03%K +23.83%G +42.60%1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -30.10%E -28.95%K -752.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-20 21:49
LiveScore Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +162.34%E +20.29%K +23.19%G +37.65%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -28.09%E -26.25%K -401.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-20 21:49
Virgin Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +162.34%E +20.29%K +23.19%G +37.65%1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -28.09%E -26.25%K -401.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-20 21:49
BetMGM🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV +137.75%E +19.00%K +22.04%G +30.36%1.07I 93.46%NM 87.14%EV -28.09%E -26.25%K -401.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-06-20 21:49
Betway🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV +129.55%E +18.51%K +21.59%G +27.97%1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -28.09%E -26.25%K -401.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-20 21:49
DraftKings🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +121.35%E +17.98%K +21.10%G +25.61%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -25.40%E -22.88%K -230.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-20 21:47
FanDuel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +113.15%E +17.41%K +20.57%G +23.28%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -25.40%E -22.88%K -230.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-20 21:48
Caesars🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV +41.01%E +9.54%K +12.43%G +5.10%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -19.35%E -16.13%K -96.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-20 21:47
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%EV -31.79%E -15.28%K -29.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV +12.24%E +7.33%K +18.26%G +2.23%8.0%2026-06-20 21:42
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.59%EV -34.41%E -17.21%K -34.41%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%EV +27.02%E +14.30%K +30.36%G +8.20%2.9%2026-06-20 21:40
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -34.41%E -17.21%K -34.41%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +22.99%E +12.56%K +27.70%G +6.37%4.6%2026-06-20 21:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -35.73%E -18.23%K -37.21%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV +25.01%E +13.44%K +29.08%G +7.27%4.8%2026-06-20 21:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -36.05%E -18.49%K -37.95%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +25.68%E +13.73%K +29.51%G +7.58%4.8%2026-06-20 21:09
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -36.05%E -18.49%K -37.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +24.33%E +13.15%K +28.63%G +6.97%5.3%2026-06-20 21:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -36.38%E -18.75%K -38.70%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV +25.68%E +13.73%K +29.51%G +7.58%5.0%2026-06-20 21:00
Coolbet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -37.37%E -19.56%K -41.06%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV +29.71%E +15.39%K +31.95%G +9.49%4.2%2026-06-19 12:49
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -37.37%E -19.56%K -41.06%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV +24.33%E +13.15%K +28.63%G +6.97%6.4%2026-06-20 21:10
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -37.37%E -19.56%K -41.06%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +22.99%E +12.56%K +27.70%G +6.37%7.0%2026-06-20 21:39
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -37.37%E -19.56%K -41.06%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +22.99%E +12.56%K +27.70%G +6.37%7.0%2026-06-20 21:43
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -37.69%E -19.84%K -41.88%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +27.69%E +14.58%K +30.77%G +8.52%5.3%2026-06-20 21:09
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -37.69%E -19.84%K -41.88%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +27.69%E +14.58%K +30.77%G +8.52%5.3%2026-06-20 21:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.66%EV -39.01%E -20.97%K -45.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.34%EV +28.37%E +14.85%K +31.17%G +8.84%6.1%2026-06-20 19:20
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -39.33%E -21.26%K -46.27%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV +29.04%E +15.12%K +31.56%G +9.17%6.1%2026-06-20 04:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -39.99%E -21.85%K -48.18%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +28.37%E +14.85%K +31.17%G +8.84%7.0%2026-06-19 23:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.63%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.37%-0.0%2026-06-20 21:30
Kalshi◎11.11I 9.00%NM 8.86%1.08I 92.59%NM 91.14%1.6%2026-06-20 21:50
Matchbook◎2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%2.2%2026-06-20 21:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%7.1%2026-06-20 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%7.6%2026-06-20 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 12.73%1.05I 95.24%NM 87.27%9.1%2026-06-20 21:50
Novig◎4.00I 25.00%NM 20.00%1.00I 100.00%NM 80.00%25.0%2026-06-20 21:50
ProphetX◎1.11I 90.09%NM 61.72%1.79I 55.87%NM 38.28%46.0%2026-06-20 21:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.95%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.36%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.69%9.4%2026-06-19 15:20