The School of Odds

Kamil Oniszczuk v Mick Stanton

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 14:00 UTC

Final: Kamil Oniszczuk 1–0 Mick Stanton

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Kamil Oniszczuk (Local)

Prediction 74.40%1.34fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -3.11%
Kelly -13.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.40%74.40%74.40%74.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.291.291.291.2977.52%77.52%77.52%77.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Mick Stanton (Visit)

Prediction 25.60%3.91fair odd
EV -4.02%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.60%25.60%25.60%25.60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.753.753.753.7526.67%26.67%26.67%26.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.02%E -3.11%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.02%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-11 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.