Language:English
Kai Asakura v Cameron Smotherman
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kai Asakura (Local)
Prediction 70.17%1.43fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -8.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.49%70.24%70.11%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.341.3876.92%74.15%74.63%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cameron Smotherman (Visit)
Prediction 29.83%3.35fair odd
EV +4.40%
Edge +1.26%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.077%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%29.76%29.89%31.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.223.253.5033.90%31.08%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kai Asakura (Local): 70.17%; Cameron Smotherman (Visit): 29.83%. For Cameron Smotherman (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.40%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.78%E -6.75%K -29.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +4.40%E +1.26%K +1.76%G +0.077% | 5.5% | 2026-05-30 08:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -7.37%E -5.59%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV +1.41%E +0.416%K +0.589%G +0.008% | 5.2% | 2026-05-29 03:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -0.078%E -0.023%K -0.033%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-30 11:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -0.078%E -0.023%K -0.033%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-30 12:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.51%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%EV -1.57%E -0.476%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-30 08:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.57%E -0.476%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 22:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.57%E -0.476%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 22:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.57%E -0.476%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 22:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.57%E -0.476%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 22:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.57%E -0.476%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 22:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.57%E -0.476%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 22:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.57%E -0.476%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 22:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.57%E -0.476%K -0.682%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-29 22:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.93%EV -5.97%E -4.45%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 29.07%EV -2.46%E -0.754%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-30 06:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -3.06%E -0.942%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-29 05:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.06%E -0.942%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 12:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.06%E -0.942%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 06:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -5.97%E -4.45%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -3.06%E -0.942%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 01:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV -4.55%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-30 11:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -3.86%E -2.82%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -4.55%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-30 06:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -3.86%E -2.82%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -4.55%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-29 02:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -3.86%E -2.82%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -4.55%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-30 08:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.97%E -4.45%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -4.55%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-29 06:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -6.04%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-30 07:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.04%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 11:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -7.37%E -5.59%K -23.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -6.04%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-30 10:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.47%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.53%EV -6.34%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-30 12:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.43%EV -8.07%E -6.16%K -26.05%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.57%EV -6.94%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-30 12:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.86%E -2.82%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 06:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -9.03%E -2.96%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 09:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.16%E -2.29%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -10.52%E -3.51%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 12:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.52%E -3.51%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-29 06:27 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.52%E -3.51%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-30 08:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -5.97%E -4.45%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -12.01%E -4.07%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-30 01:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.99% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 29.01% | -0.1% | 2026-05-30 06:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-05-30 12:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.2% | 2026-05-30 12:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.2% | 2026-05-30 12:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.2% | 2026-05-30 12:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.55% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 28.45% | 1.3% | 2026-05-30 12:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70% | 1.7% | 2026-05-30 12:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.87% | 1.9% | 2026-05-30 12:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.73% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.40% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-05-30 03:39 |