Language:English
Kaan Ofli v Javier Reyes Rugeles
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kaan Ofli (Local)
Prediction 32.05%3.12fair odd
EV +0.945%
Edge +0.300%
Kelly +0.440%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.53%32.27%31.82%35.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.902.853.1538.17%34.49%35.03%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Javier Reyes Rugeles (Visit)
Prediction 67.95%1.47fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.53%67.73%68.18%69.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.421.431.4572.46%70.47%69.93%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kaan Ofli (Local): 32.05%; Javier Reyes Rugeles (Visit): 67.95%. For Kaan Ofli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.945%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV +0.945%E +0.300%K +0.440%G +0.004% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -5.54%E -3.99%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-27 14:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.99%EV +0.625%E +0.199%K +0.292%G +0.002% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.01%EV -4.19%E -2.97%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-06-27 14:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.53%EV +0.625%E +0.199%K +0.292%G +0.002% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.47%EV -6.22%E -4.51%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 13:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -0.657%E -0.212%K -0.313%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.22%E -4.51%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-27 14:18 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -2.26%E -0.741%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.19%E -2.97%K -10.21%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-27 14:18 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -2.26%E -0.741%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -4.86%E -3.47%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-27 13:58 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -2.26%E -0.741%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.22%E -4.51%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 13:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -2.26%E -0.741%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.22%E -4.51%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 13:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.86%E -3.47%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 14:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.86%E -3.47%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 14:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.86%E -3.47%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 14:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.86%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.86%E -3.47%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 13:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.46%E -1.85%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.86%E -3.47%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%EV -6.43%E -2.20%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.97%EV -2.15%E -1.49%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-27 03:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -2.83%E -1.98%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-26 22:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.07%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.86%E -3.47%K -12.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-27 13:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -8.03%E -2.80%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.90%EV -3.51%E -2.47%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-26 22:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -8.99%E -3.17%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -1.47%E -1.01%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-27 12:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -8.99%E -3.17%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -1.47%E -1.01%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-27 12:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -10.27%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.15%E -1.49%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-27 12:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -10.27%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.15%E -1.49%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-27 12:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -10.27%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.15%E -1.49%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-27 12:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -10.27%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.15%E -1.49%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-27 12:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -10.27%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -2.83%E -1.98%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-27 12:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -10.27%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -2.83%E -1.98%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-27 12:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -10.27%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -2.83%E -1.98%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-27 12:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -10.27%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -2.83%E -1.98%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-27 12:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -10.27%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -2.83%E -1.98%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-27 12:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -10.27%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -2.83%E -1.98%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-27 12:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -10.27%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.51%E -2.47%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-27 09:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.15%E -1.49%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-26 22:28 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -11.87%E -4.32%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -2.15%E -1.49%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-26 22:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -13.48%E -4.99%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -1.47%E -1.01%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 05:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -16.04%E -6.12%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -2.15%E -1.49%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-26 15:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 14:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 14:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 14:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27% | 1.0% | 2026-06-27 14:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27% | 1.0% | 2026-06-27 13:50 |
| Novig◎ | 3.08I 32.47%NM 32.01% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.99% | 1.4% | 2026-06-27 14:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93% | 2.2% | 2026-06-27 14:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.19% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 7.9% | 2026-06-27 13:59 |