Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Justin Gaethje v Arman Tsarukyan

2028-07-30 04:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

21%

79%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Justin Gaethje (Local)

Prediction 21.33%4.69fair odd

EV -4.02%

Edge -0.894%

Kelly -1.15%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.33%21.33%21.33%21.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.504.504.504.5022.22%22.22%22.22%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arman Tsarukyan (Visit)

Prediction 78.67%1.27fair odd

EV -4.02%

Edge -3.30%

Kelly -18.28%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.67%78.67%78.67%78.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.221.221.221.2281.97%81.97%81.97%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Justin Gaethje (Local): 21.33%; Arman Tsarukyan (Visit): 78.67%. For Arman Tsarukyan (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.27. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.22, with an expected value of -4.02%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.02%E -0.894%K -1.15%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.02%E -3.30%K -18.28%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-20 14:48

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.