Justin Gaethje v Arman Tsarukyan

2026-12-31 05:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

20%

80%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Justin Gaethje (Local)

Prediction 19.83%5.04fair odd

EV -3.80%

Edge -0.784%

Kelly -0.987%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.83%19.83%19.83%19.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

4.854.854.854.8521%21%21%21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Arman Tsarukyan (Visit)

Prediction 80.17%1.25fair odd

EV -3.80%

Edge -3.17%

Kelly -19.01%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.17%80.17%80.17%80.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.201.201.201.2083%83%83%83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -3.80%E -0.784%K -0.987%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -3.80%E -3.17%K -19.01%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-06-20 01:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.