Language:English
Junior Tafa v Kevin Christian
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Junior Tafa (Local)
Prediction 66.19%1.51fair odd
EV -0.722%
Edge -0.482%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.41%66.28%66.20%68.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.431.5071.43%69.74%69.93%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kevin Christian (Visit)
Prediction 33.81%2.96fair odd
EV +2.12%
Edge +0.702%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.022%
assuming max odds 3.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.83%33.72%33.80%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.792.803.0238.46%35.79%35.71%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Junior Tafa (Local): 66.19%; Kevin Christian (Visit): 33.81%. For Kevin Christian (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.02, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.12%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.17%EV -6.68%E -4.74%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV +2.12%E +0.702%K +1.05%G +0.022% | 4.0% | 2026-05-02 10:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -6.68%E -4.74%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -0.246%E -0.083%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-02 10:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 66.51%EV -3.37%E -2.31%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%EV -1.94%E -0.668%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-02 10:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.36%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -1.94%E -0.668%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 07:37 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.63%E -1.27%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-02 10:22 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.34%E -5.24%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -3.63%E -1.27%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 10:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.34%E -5.24%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -3.63%E -1.27%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 10:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -3.97%E -1.40%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-01 10:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.81%EV -2.71%E -1.84%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.19%EV -4.30%E -1.52%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-02 10:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.43%EV -5.36%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.57%EV -4.30%E -1.52%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -4.64%E -1.65%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-01 21:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-02 10:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-02 07:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-02 07:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-02 00:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.36%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.36%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.36%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 08:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.36%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.36%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.36%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.36%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.36%E -3.74%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.02%E -4.24%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.32%E -1.90%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-02 10:26 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-02 10:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 08:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.69%E -3.26%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 08:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.02%E -4.24%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 10:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -6.68%E -4.74%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 10:26 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -6.68%E -4.74%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -7.01%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 10:26 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.71%E -1.84%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 09:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.03%E -2.78%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.70%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 00:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -7.34%E -5.24%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -10.39%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 10:26 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -7.34%E -5.24%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -10.39%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 10:26 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -0.722%E -0.482%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -12.08%E -4.65%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 67.11% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 32.89% | 0.0% | 2026-05-02 10:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-05-02 10:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-05-02 10:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 0.5% | 2026-05-02 10:24 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24% | 0.7% | 2026-05-02 10:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.49% | 3.7% | 2026-05-02 10:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.44% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56% | 4.0% | 2026-05-02 10:26 |
| Novig◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.59% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.41% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 10:25 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.36% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 32.80% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 09:10 |