Language:English
Julien Leblanc v Robert Valentin
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Julien Leblanc (Local)
Prediction 39.19%2.55fair odd
EV -0.071%
Edge -0.028%
Kelly -0.046%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.35%39.28%39.09%44.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.162.412.402.5546.30%41.42%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Robert Valentin (Visit)
Prediction 60.81%1.64fair odd
EV +3.38%
Edge +1.99%
Kelly +4.83%
Growth +0.163%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.96%60.72%60.91%62.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.571.571.7066.23%63.57%63.69%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Julien Leblanc (Local): 39.19%; Robert Valentin (Visit): 60.81%. For Robert Valentin (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.64. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.38%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -15.35%E -7.11%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV +3.38%E +1.99%K +4.83%G +0.163% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 06:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -15.35%E -7.11%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV +3.38%E +1.99%K +4.83%G +0.163% | 5.1% | 2026-04-15 06:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -9.87%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -1.48%E -0.916%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 08:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -9.87%E -4.29%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.09%E -1.30%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 17:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 39.12%EV -2.42%E -0.973%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.88%EV -2.70%E -1.69%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-18 22:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%EV -5.56%E -2.31%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%EV -2.70%E -1.69%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-18 17:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -3.21%E -1.30%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -3.92%E -2.48%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-18 22:47 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.92%E -2.48%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 08:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-18 23:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -3.60%E -1.46%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-18 23:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-18 12:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-18 23:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-18 12:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-18 12:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.99%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-18 22:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-18 14:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-18 14:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-18 14:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-18 14:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-18 14:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.73%E -2.83%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-18 18:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.73%E -2.83%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.53%E -2.88%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-18 18:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-18 16:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-18 16:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-18 23:07 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-18 21:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 22:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 14:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 14:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 14:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 14:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 14:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 14:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 14:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 14:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.13%E -3.29%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-18 14:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -3.60%E -1.46%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -5.74%E -3.70%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-18 23:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.03%E -0.812%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.96%E -4.55%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-18 20:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -0.071%E -0.028%K -0.046%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -7.57%E -4.98%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 22:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -5.95%E -2.48%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -8.17%E -5.41%K -16.03%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-18 23:08 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95% | 0.0% | 2026-04-18 23:10 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.72% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.28% | 0.1% | 2026-04-18 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77% | 0.3% | 2026-04-18 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-04-18 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-04-18 23:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-04-18 23:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98% | 2.5% | 2026-04-18 23:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.92% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.08% | 3.6% | 2026-04-18 23:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.22% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.93% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.6% | 2026-04-18 17:30 |