Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Julien Leblanc v Nick Galanti

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 23:15 UTC

Final: Julien Leblanc 0–1 Nick Galanti

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

15%

85%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Julien Leblanc (Local)

Prediction 14.96%6.68fair odd

EV +6.24%

Edge +0.879%

Kelly +1.02%

Growth +0.064%

assuming max odds 7.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

13.52%15.16%15.02%17.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.906.086.007.1020.41%16.44%16.67%14.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nick Galanti (Visit)

Prediction 85.04%1.18fair odd

EV -2.21%

Edge -1.92%

Kelly -14.72%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

82.21%84.84%84.98%86.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.061.121.131.1594.34%88.99%88.50%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Julien Leblanc (Local): 14.96%; Nick Galanti (Visit): 85.04%. For Julien Leblanc (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.68. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.24%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
ReBet🎯	7.10I 14.08%NM 13.52%EV +6.24%E +0.879%K +1.02%G +0.064%	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.48%EV -5.61%E -5.05%K -50.99%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-17 22:54
BetOnline.ag🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +4.74%E +0.677%K +0.790%G +0.037%	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -5.61%E -5.05%K -50.99%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-17 22:50
Bet Right🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +4.74%E +0.677%K +0.790%G +0.037%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.46%E -5.87%K -64.59%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-17 22:50
Pinnacle🎯	6.96I 14.37%NM 13.97%EV +4.14%E +0.595%K +0.695%G +0.029%	1.13I 88.50%NM 86.03%EV -3.91%E -3.46%K -30.06%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-10-17 23:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV +1.75%E +0.257%K +0.302%G +0.005%	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -5.61%E -5.05%K -50.99%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-17 23:09
Unibet (UK)🎯	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +1.00%E +0.148%K +0.174%G +0.002%	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.61%E -5.05%K -50.99%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-17 22:55
BetUS🎯	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +1.00%E +0.148%K +0.174%G +0.002%	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.61%E -5.05%K -50.99%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-17 22:55
DraftKings🎯	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +1.00%E +0.148%K +0.174%G +0.002%	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.61%E -5.05%K -50.99%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-17 23:10
Coolbet🎯	6.60I 15.15%NM 14.73%EV -1.24%E -0.188%K -0.222%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 85.27%EV -3.06%E -2.68%K -21.84%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-10-17 23:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -2.74%E -0.421%K -0.498%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.76%E -4.25%K -39.66%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-17 23:05
Bovada🎯	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -2.74%E -0.421%K -0.498%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.76%E -4.25%K -39.66%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-17 22:59
NordicBet🎯	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -6.48%E -1.04%K -1.23%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.91%E -3.46%K -30.06%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-16 12:24
Caesars🎯	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -6.48%E -1.04%K -1.23%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -3.91%E -3.46%K -30.06%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-17 21:33
Betsson🎯	6.15I 16.26%NM 15.41%EV -7.98%E -1.30%K -1.55%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.59%EV -4.76%E -4.25%K -39.66%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-16 12:24
888sport🎯	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -8.72%E -1.43%K -1.71%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -4.76%E -4.25%K -39.66%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-10-17 21:30
TAB🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -10.22%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.91%E -3.46%K -30.06%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-17 23:05
Paddy Power🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.22%E -1.70%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.76%E -4.25%K -39.66%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-17 23:10
BetAnything🎯	5.85I 17.09%NM 15.95%EV -12.47%E -2.13%K -2.57%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.05%EV -5.61%E -5.05%K -50.99%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-10-17 22:50
betPARX🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.21%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.91%E -3.46%K -30.06%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-10-17 23:10
FanDuel🎯	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -13.21%E -2.28%K -2.75%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -4.76%E -4.25%K -39.66%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-17 23:10
TABtouch🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -16.21%E -2.89%K -3.52%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.06%E -2.68%K -21.84%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-16 10:10
Unibet🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -16.21%E -2.89%K -3.52%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.06%E -2.68%K -21.84%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-16 10:10
BetRivers🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -16.21%E -2.89%K -3.52%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.06%E -2.68%K -21.84%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-16 10:10
ATG (SE)🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -16.21%E -2.89%K -3.52%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.06%E -2.68%K -21.84%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-16 10:10
LiveScore Bet🎯	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -16.21%E -2.89%K -3.52%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.06%E -2.68%K -21.84%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-16 10:10
Betway🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -17.70%E -3.22%K -3.93%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -2.21%E -1.92%K -14.72%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:09
Betr (AU)🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -17.70%E -3.22%K -3.93%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.06%E -2.68%K -21.84%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-14 20:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -17.70%E -3.22%K -3.93%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.06%E -2.68%K -21.84%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-16 10:09
Sky Bet🎯	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -17.70%E -3.22%K -3.93%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -3.91%E -3.46%K -30.06%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-17 21:05
Bally Bet🎯	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -19.20%E -3.56%K -4.36%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -3.91%E -3.46%K -30.06%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 23:10
Virgin Bet🎯	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -19.20%E -3.56%K -4.36%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -3.91%E -3.46%K -30.06%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-17 23:10
Grosvenor🎯	4.90I 20.41%NM 17.79%EV -26.68%E -5.45%K -6.84%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 82.21%EV -9.86%E -9.30%K -164.35%G +0.000%	14.7%	2026-10-16 10:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.73%	1.13I 88.50%NM 88.27%	0.3%	2026-10-17 22:52
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%	1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78%	0.5%	2026-10-17 22:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%	1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78%	0.5%	2026-10-17 23:10
Kalshi◎	6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81%	1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19%	1.2%	2026-10-17 23:05
Polymarket◎	8.33I 12.00%NM 11.76%	1.11I 90.09%NM 88.24%	2.1%	2026-10-17 23:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	6.60I 15.15%NM 14.84%	1.15I 86.96%NM 85.16%	2.1%	2026-10-17 23:10
Matchbook◎	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%	4.2%	2026-10-17 23:09
Novig◎	6.90I 14.49%NM 13.75%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.25%	5.4%	2026-10-17 23:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	6.10I 16.39%NM 15.00%	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.17%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%	9.3%	2026-10-17 23:04