Language:English
Julian Erosa v Lerryan Douglas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Julian Erosa (Local)
Prediction 25.83%3.87fair odd
EV -0.291%
Edge -0.075%
Kelly -0.102%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.86
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.95%25.98%25.60%29.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.593.573.8632.26%27.82%28.01%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lerryan Douglas (Visit)
Prediction 74.17%1.35fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.14%74.02%74.40%75.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.291.301.3380.00%77.26%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Julian Erosa (Local): 25.83%; Lerryan Douglas (Visit): 74.17%. For Julian Erosa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.86, with an expected value of -0.291%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.05%EV -0.291%E -0.075%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.95%EV -4.32%E -3.35%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-28 00:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -0.550%E -0.143%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.90%EV -4.32%E -3.35%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-26 10:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -0.550%E -0.143%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -5.06%E -3.96%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-27 12:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -0.550%E -0.143%K -0.193%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -5.06%E -3.96%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-27 12:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -1.84%E -0.485%K -0.658%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.06%E -3.96%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-27 20:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.39%EV -2.10%E -0.554%K -0.753%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.61%EV -4.32%E -3.35%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-26 10:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.13%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.32%E -3.35%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-26 21:43 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.13%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.32%E -3.35%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-27 13:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -3.13%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.32%E -3.35%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-27 20:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.13%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.06%E -3.96%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-28 00:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.13%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.06%E -3.96%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-27 13:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -3.13%E -0.835%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.06%E -3.96%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-27 13:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.42%E -1.20%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.32%E -3.35%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-27 20:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -2.84%E -2.17%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-28 01:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-28 00:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.32%E -3.35%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-26 12:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.32%E -3.35%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-26 21:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.06%E -3.96%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-26 13:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.06%E -3.96%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.01%E -1.95%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.29%E -5.83%K -29.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-27 21:43 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -7.78%E -2.18%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-26 18:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -2.84%E -2.17%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 04:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -9.59%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-25 10:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV -10.37%E -2.99%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29%EV -1.36%E -1.02%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-23 17:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -10.88%E -3.15%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-25 15:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -12.17%E -3.58%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.58%E -2.75%K -11.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-25 15:53 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -19.92%E -6.43%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -2.10%E -1.59%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-23 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 0.3% | 2026-03-28 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-03-28 02:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-03-28 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-03-28 02:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23% | 0.9% | 2026-03-28 02:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76% | 2.9% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| Novig◎ | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.34% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.66% | 3.0% | 2026-03-28 02:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.61% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.51% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.7% | 2026-03-27 20:55 |