The School of Odds
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Julian Erosa v Jeongyoung Lee

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Julian Erosa (Local)

Prediction 43.40%2.30fair odd
EV +6.33%
Edge +2.58%
Kelly +4.36%
Growth +0.276%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.60%43.72%43.30%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.192.202.4550.00%45.70%45.45%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jeongyoung Lee (Visit)

Prediction 56.60%1.77fair odd
EV +0.185%
Edge +0.105%
Kelly +0.240%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%56.28%56.70%61.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.681.681.7764.94%59.40%59.52%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Julian Erosa (Local): 43.40%; Jeongyoung Lee (Visit): 56.60%. For Julian Erosa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.33%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV +6.33%E +2.58%K +4.36%G +0.276%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -12.83%E -8.33%K -23.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 21:27
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.35%E -1.05%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 14:30
Coolbet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -3.22%E -1.44%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -4.34%E -2.57%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-30 19:45
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.80%EV -3.66%E -1.65%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.20%EV -2.08%E -1.20%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-31 22:35
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -3.66%E -1.65%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -6.61%E -4.00%K -10.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-31 14:30
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.78%E -2.22%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 22:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.34%E -2.57%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-31 15:05
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 15:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 15:05
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 15:05
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 15:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 15:05
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 15:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 15:05
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 15:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.91%E -2.92%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 15:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 22:50
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.48%E -3.28%K -8.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-30 23:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.64%E -1.54%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-31 22:55
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.78%E -2.22%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 22:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -7.13%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -0.947%E -0.541%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-31 22:55
BetUS🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -7.13%E -3.33%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -1.51%E -0.869%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-31 22:20
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -8.86%E -4.22%K -8.06%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +0.185%E +0.105%K +0.240%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-31 22:21
BetAnything🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -11.03%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -1.51%E -0.869%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 22:19
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -13.20%E -6.60%K -13.20%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 56.50%EV -12.83%E -8.33%K -23.77%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-31 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95%1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05%0.2%2026-10-31 22:45
Novig◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.81%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.19%0.6%2026-10-31 22:55
Polymarket◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%1.1%2026-10-31 20:10
ProphetX◎2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%5.3%2026-10-31 22:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.45%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.70%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.2%2026-10-31 21:30

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