Jovan Leka v Alexander Poppeck

2026-08-01 22:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

67%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Jovan Leka (Local)

Prediction 67.35%1.48fair odd

EV -3.69%

Edge -2.58%

Kelly -8.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.90%67.35%67.35%67.35%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.411.421.421.4371%70%70%70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Alexander Poppeck (Visit)

Prediction 32.65%3.06fair odd

EV -3.69%

Edge -1.25%

Kelly -1.89%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.65%32.65%32.65%33.10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.852.902.902.9535%34%34%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.69%E -2.58%K -8.57%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.69%E -1.25%K -1.89%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-07-25 00:20
Fliff	1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.03%E -3.57%K -12.28%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -6.95%E -2.44%K -3.76%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-25 00:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.37%	2.94I 34.01%NM 31.80%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.83%	7.0%	2026-07-25 00:25