Language:English
Jovan Leka v Alexander Poppeck
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jovan Leka (Local)
Prediction 72.67%1.38fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.855%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.51%72.90%72.74%75.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.311.301.3680.65%76.56%76.92%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Poppeck (Visit)
Prediction 27.33%3.66fair odd
EV +6.57%
Edge +1.68%
Kelly +2.27%
Growth +0.149%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.56%27.10%27.26%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.503.9032.26%28.71%28.57%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jovan Leka (Local): 72.67%; Alexander Poppeck (Visit): 27.33%. For Alexander Poppeck (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.57%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -7.70%E -6.07%K -28.53%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +6.57%E +1.68%K +2.27%G +0.149% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +3.84%E +1.01%K +1.37%G +0.053% | 3.8% | 2026-08-01 14:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -6.98%E -5.45%K -24.92%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV +3.84%E +1.01%K +1.37%G +0.053% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 14:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.30%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.70%EV +1.92%E +0.516%K +0.705%G +0.014% | 4.3% | 2026-08-01 14:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.80%E -3.66%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -1.63%E -0.452%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 14:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -1.63%E -0.452%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -1.63%E -0.452%K -0.626%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 14:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.71%EV -2.62%E -1.95%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.29%EV -2.45%E -0.686%K -0.952%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-01 14:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -2.99%E -0.843%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -2.99%E -0.843%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -2.99%E -0.843%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -2.99%E -0.843%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -2.99%E -0.843%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -2.99%E -0.843%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -2.99%E -0.843%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -6.25%E -4.84%K -21.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -2.99%E -0.843%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.34%E -2.51%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -4.36%E -1.25%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-01 13:43 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.80%E -3.66%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.36%E -1.25%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.52%E -4.25%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.36%E -1.25%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 14:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -3.34%E -2.51%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-01 13:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.80%E -3.66%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 13:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.52%E -4.25%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -2.62%E -1.95%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -7.09%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-01 12:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.28%EV -9.88%E -7.97%K -41.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -7.09%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -2.62%E -1.95%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -8.46%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-01 00:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -4.80%E -3.66%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -8.46%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-01 14:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -3.34%E -2.51%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48%EV -8.73%E -2.61%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 00:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.07%E -3.08%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-31 20:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.07%E -3.08%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-31 20:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.52%E -4.25%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-01 13:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.34%E -2.51%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.19%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-01 13:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.34%E -2.51%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.19%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-01 00:03 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.34%E -2.51%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.19%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-01 00:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -1.16%E -0.855%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -15.29%E -4.93%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-31 09:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 74.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.96% | 0.0% | 2026-08-01 14:20 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.14% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 23.86% | 0.3% | 2026-08-01 14:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-08-01 14:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.93% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07% | 0.9% | 2026-08-01 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33% | 1.3% | 2026-08-01 14:20 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.44% | 2.2% | 2026-08-01 14:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.24% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.76% | 2.7% | 2026-08-01 14:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56% | 3.2% | 2026-08-01 14:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.86% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 8.4% | 2026-08-01 12:44 |
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