The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Josiah Harrell v Elves Brenner

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 22:22 UTC

Final: Josiah Harrell 0–1 Elves Brenner

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Josiah Harrell (Local)

Prediction 53.92%1.85fair odd
EV -0.242%
Edge -0.131%
Kelly -0.284%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.82%53.88%53.93%57.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.761.761.8561.73%56.77%56.82%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elves Brenner (Visit)

Prediction 46.08%2.17fair odd
EV +3.67%
Edge +1.63%
Kelly +2.94%
Growth +0.108%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.31%46.12%46.07%48.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.062.062.2553.19%48.44%48.54%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Josiah Harrell (Local): 53.92%; Elves Brenner (Visit): 46.08%. For Elves Brenner (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.67%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -11.03%E -6.68%K -16.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +3.67%E +1.63%K +2.94%G +0.108%5.1%2026-09-26 22:15
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.42%EV +0.908%E +0.415%K +0.763%G +0.007%2.8%2026-09-26 22:00
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -0.935%E -0.435%K -0.813%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 21:26
Coolbet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -0.935%E -0.435%K -0.813%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 22:04
Bovada🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.32%E -1.09%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 22:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -4.02%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-26 22:20
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.56%E -2.57%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-26 22:05
ReBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -4.02%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -3.70%E -1.77%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 22:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.09%E -2.89%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.08%E -2.47%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 16:05
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.09%E -2.89%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.08%E -2.47%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 16:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.09%E -2.89%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.08%E -2.47%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 16:05
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.09%E -2.89%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.08%E -2.47%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 16:05
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.09%E -2.89%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.08%E -2.47%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 16:05
Bally Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.09%E -2.89%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.08%E -2.47%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 16:05
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.09%E -2.89%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.08%E -2.47%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 16:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.09%E -2.89%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.08%E -2.47%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 16:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.02%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-25 12:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.56%E -2.57%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 20:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.56%E -2.57%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 16:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.09%E -2.89%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 12:55
DraftKings🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -6.93%E -3.43%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-23 02:43
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 11:25
BetAnything🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.56%E -2.57%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 20:55
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -0.242%E -0.131%K -0.284%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -8.31%E -4.17%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 20:50
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -9.69%E -4.94%K -10.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-26 20:55
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.71%EV -12.64%E -7.81%K -20.39%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.29%EV -13.38%E -7.11%K -15.20%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-26 16:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.80%2.26I 44.25%NM 44.20%0.1%2026-09-26 22:16
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.0%2026-09-26 22:20
Matchbook◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50%1.2%2026-09-26 22:20
ProphetX◎1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%2.5%2026-09-26 22:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.52%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.65%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%9.3%2026-09-26 21:35