The School of Odds
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Joshua Van v Manel Kape

2027-01-31 05:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joshua Van (Local)

Prediction 52.36%1.91fair odd
EV +4.20%
Edge +2.11%
Kelly +4.24%
Growth +0.178%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.45%51.83%52.00%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.821.831.9959.52%54.99%54.64%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manel Kape (Visit)

Prediction 47.64%2.10fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%48.17%48.00%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.961.972.0555.25%51.04%50.76%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Joshua Van (Local): 52.36%; Manel Kape (Visit): 47.64%. For Joshua Van (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 1.99, producing a positive expected value of +4.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.45%EV +4.20%E +2.11%K +4.24%G +0.178%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.55%EV -10.92%E -5.84%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-24 21:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 21:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 21:25
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.68%E -2.87%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 21:25
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.16%E -3.12%K -6.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 21:25
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.16%E -3.12%K -6.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 21:25
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.16%E -3.12%K -6.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.16%E -3.12%K -6.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 21:25
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.16%E -3.12%K -6.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 21:25
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.34%E -1.14%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 19:54
Caesars🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.75%E -3.19%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.11%E -3.65%K -7.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-24 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.41%E -5.44%K -12.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.73%E -2.36%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 21:49
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.86%EV -12.03%E -7.16%K -17.69%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.14%EV -13.78%E -7.61%K -17.01%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-24 21:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.98%BetOnline.ag 1.99 (50.7%) / DraftKings 2.05 (49.3%)Show details
Joshua Van (Local)Manel Kape (Visit)Margin
BetOnline.ag🎯 1.99 (50.7%)DraftKings🎯 2.05 (49.3%)+0.978%