The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Joshua Van v Alexandre Pantoja

2026-09-20 04:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joshua Van (Local)

Prediction 47.08%2.12fair odd
EV -5.84%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -5.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%47.08%47.08%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.002.002.0050.00%50.00%50.00%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alexandre Pantoja (Visit)

Prediction 52.92%1.89fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%52.92%52.92%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.781.781.8357.80%56.18%56.18%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Joshua Van (Local): 47.08%; Alexandre Pantoja (Visit): 52.92%. For Alexandre Pantoja (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.83, with an expected value of -3.16%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.16%E -1.73%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 23:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.84%E -2.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.45%E -4.88%K -11.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-05 23:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.