Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joshua Silveira v Aaron Jeffery

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 02:55 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

37%

63%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joshua Silveira (Local)

Prediction 37.45%2.67fair odd

EV -2.27%

Edge -0.869%

Kelly -1.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.11%37.45%37.56%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.352.482.452.6142.55%40.35%40.82%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aaron Jeffery (Visit)

Prediction 62.55%1.60fair odd

EV -3.67%

Edge -2.38%

Kelly -6.79%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.03%62.55%62.44%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.421.501.501.5470.42%66.67%66.67%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joshua Silveira (Local): 37.45%; Aaron Jeffery (Visit): 62.55%. For Joshua Silveira (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.61, with an expected value of -2.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -2.27%E -0.869%K -1.41%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -3.67%E -2.38%K -6.79%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-08 02:50
FanDuel🎯	2.56I 39.06%NM 37.56%EV -4.14%E -1.62%K -2.65%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.44%EV -3.67%E -2.38%K -6.79%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-07 18:10
Grosvenor🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.70%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.17%E -4.11%K -12.34%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-05 13:50
Unibet🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.70%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.17%E -4.11%K -12.34%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-05 13:50
Bally Bet🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.26%E -3.37%K -5.70%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.17%E -4.11%K -12.34%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-08-05 13:50
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 37.67%EV -12.00%E -5.11%K -8.89%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 62.33%EV -11.17%E -7.87%K -26.60%G +0.000%	13.0%	2026-08-08 02:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.