Language:English
Josh Hokit v Derrick Lewis
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Josh Hokit (Local)
Prediction 78.86%1.27fair odd
EV +0.158%
Edge +0.124%
Kelly +0.584%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.00%78.74%78.87%81.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.231.231.2785.47%81.00%80.97%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Derrick Lewis (Visit)
Prediction 21.14%4.73fair odd
EV +8.85%
Edge +1.72%
Kelly +2.13%
Growth +0.189%
assuming max odds 5.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.64%21.26%21.13%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.214.155.1526.67%23.73%24.10%19.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Josh Hokit (Local): 78.86%; Derrick Lewis (Visit): 21.14%. For Derrick Lewis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.85%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36%EV -6.94%E -5.88%K -38.56%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64%EV +8.85%E +1.72%K +2.13%G +0.189% | 4.2% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.08%EV -6.15%E -5.17%K -32.38%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.92%EV +7.79%E +1.53%K +1.90%G +0.148% | 3.6% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -5.36%E -4.47%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +0.395%E +0.083%K +0.105%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -5.36%E -4.47%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +0.395%E +0.083%K +0.105%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 02:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.87%EV -3.00%E -2.44%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 21.13%EV -2.99%E -0.651%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-15 02:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.87%EV -3.00%E -2.44%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.59I 21.79%NM 21.13%EV -2.99%E -0.651%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.71%EV -3.79%E -3.10%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.29%EV -4.68%E -1.04%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-11 15:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.79%E -3.10%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.89%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.57%E -3.78%K -21.78%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -4.89%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-14 11:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.36%E -4.47%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.89%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.36%E -4.47%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.89%E -1.09%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-12 21:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.18%EV -7.73%E -6.61%K -45.46%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.82%EV -5.95%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-15 02:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -3.00%E -2.44%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -7.00%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-14 23:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.79%E -3.10%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -7.00%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-15 00:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.79%E -3.10%K -17.21%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -7.00%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-15 00:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.36%E -4.47%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -7.00%E -1.59%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-14 21:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.82%EV -2.21%E -1.78%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.18%EV -8.06%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-06-15 02:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%EV -3.00%E -2.44%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV -8.06%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-14 11:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -3.00%E -2.44%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -10.17%E -2.39%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -1.42%E -1.14%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -11.23%E -2.67%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-14 13:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -4.57%E -3.78%K -21.78%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -13.34%E -3.25%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-15 02:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV +0.158%E +0.124%K +0.584%G +0.001% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -15.46%E -3.86%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-15 02:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:28 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -0.631%E -0.501%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -17.57%E -4.51%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -3.00%E -2.44%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -19.68%E -5.18%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-15 02:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -1.42%E -1.14%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -20.74%E -5.53%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-14 13:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -1.42%E -1.14%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -20.74%E -5.53%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-14 13:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.73% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.27% | 0.0% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.21% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79% | 0.2% | 2026-06-15 02:31 |
| Novig◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.07% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.93% | 0.4% | 2026-06-15 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.3% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.47% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.53% | 2.3% | 2026-06-15 02:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.98% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.15% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-06-15 01:50 |