Language:English
Josh Emmett v Kevin Vallejos
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Josh Emmett (Local)
Prediction 19.03%5.26fair odd
EV +6.92%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.104%
assuming max odds 5.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.11%18.90%19.09%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.015.005.6222.22%19.95%20.00%17.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kevin Vallejos (Visit)
Prediction 80.97%1.23fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -14.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.95%81.10%80.91%82.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.181.181.2086.96%84.93%84.75%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Josh Emmett (Local): 19.03%; Kevin Vallejos (Visit): 80.97%. For Josh Emmett (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.26. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.92%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.62I 17.79%NM 17.11%EV +6.92%E +1.23%K +1.50%G +0.104% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.89%EV -6.07%E -5.23%K -37.94%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-15 01:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.54I 18.05%NM 17.56%EV +5.40%E +0.975%K +1.19%G +0.064% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.44%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-15 02:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +4.64%E +0.844%K +1.03%G +0.048% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.88%E -5.98%K -45.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 22:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +4.64%E +0.844%K +1.03%G +0.048% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.88%E -5.98%K -45.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-15 01:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.94%EV +1.79%E +0.334%K +0.411%G +0.007% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.06%EV -5.26%E -4.50%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-15 02:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV +0.836%E +0.158%K +0.194%G +0.002% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -5.26%E -4.50%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-14 22:32 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -1.07%E -0.205%K -0.254%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -5.26%E -4.50%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-15 01:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -2.97%E -0.582%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-15 02:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -2.97%E -0.582%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 02:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -2.97%E -0.582%K -0.724%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.26%E -4.50%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-09 19:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -3.64%E -3.06%K -19.16%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 15:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -3.64%E -3.06%K -19.16%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-14 15:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 14:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-12 12:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 01:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 19:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 18:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 19:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 18:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 18:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 19:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 18:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 19:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 18:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 19:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 19:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.45%E -3.77%K -24.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-09 18:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.26%E -4.50%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 23:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.87%E -0.974%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.26%E -4.50%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 21:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -6.77%E -1.38%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -6.88%E -5.98%K -45.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-15 02:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -7.73%E -1.59%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.26%E -4.50%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-14 11:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -8.68%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -3.64%E -3.06%K -19.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-15 01:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -8.68%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -3.64%E -3.06%K -19.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-15 01:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -9.63%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -2.83%E -2.36%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-15 02:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -9.63%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -2.83%E -2.36%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-15 02:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -9.63%E -2.03%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -6.88%E -5.98%K -45.86%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-14 20:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -12.48%E -2.71%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.26%E -4.50%K -30.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 02:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -14.38%E -3.20%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.83%E -2.36%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-07 16:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -14.38%E -3.20%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.83%E -2.36%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 23:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-03-15 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 0.6% | 2026-03-15 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-03-15 02:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25% | 1.3% | 2026-03-15 00:20 |
| Novig◎ | 5.32I 18.80%NM 18.40% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.60% | 2.1% | 2026-03-15 02:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.75% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.25% | 2.6% | 2026-03-15 02:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.93% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.07% | 3.3% | 2026-03-15 02:35 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.51I 22.17%NM 20.76% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.37% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |