The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Joseph Larcinese v Takaya Suzuki

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 10:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joseph Larcinese (Local)

Prediction 15.13%6.61fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -0.646%
Kelly -0.767%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.13%15.13%15.13%22.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.255.525.756.3423.53%18.11%17.39%15.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Takaya Suzuki (Visit)

Prediction 84.87%1.18fair odd
EV +1.85%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +9.24%
Growth +0.171%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.98%84.87%84.87%84.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.151.131.2089.29%87.34%88.50%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joseph Larcinese (Local): 15.13%; Takaya Suzuki (Visit): 84.87%. For Takaya Suzuki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -35.71%E -8.40%K -10.99%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV +1.85%E +1.54%K +9.24%G +0.171%6.9%2026-08-28 09:30
BetOnline.ag🎯6.34I 15.77%NM 15.13%EV -4.09%E -0.646%K -0.767%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.87%EV -4.09%E -3.62%K -31.49%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-28 09:35
BetAnything🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -20.58%E -3.92%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -4.09%E -3.62%K -31.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-28 09:35
Bovada🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -5.46%E -0.873%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.94%E -4.41%K -41.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-28 09:36
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.