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José Souza v Jonny Parsons

2026-11-07 22:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

José Souza (Local)

Prediction 67.11%1.49fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -7.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.19%67.10%67.09%67.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.421.431.4471.43%70.46%69.93%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jonny Parsons (Visit)

Prediction 32.89%3.04fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.34%32.90%32.91%33.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.862.892.9536.36%34.97%34.60%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: José Souza (Local): 67.11%; Jonny Parsons (Visit): 32.89%. For Jonny Parsons (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.95, with an expected value of -2.97%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -3.36%E -2.34%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -4.94%E -1.71%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-04 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.36%E -2.34%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -6.26%E -2.20%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-04 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -4.04%E -2.82%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -3.30%E -1.12%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-04 17:59
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.20%EV -4.04%E -2.82%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.80%EV -3.63%E -1.24%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-04 18:00
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.04%E -2.82%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-04 18:00
Caesars🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.04%E -2.82%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.4%2026-11-04 17:56
BetAnything🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.04%E -2.82%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-04 18:00
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -5.38%E -3.81%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -2.97%E -1.01%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-04 18:00
FanDuel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.98%EV -5.38%E -3.81%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.02%EV -5.93%E -2.07%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-04 18:00
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-04 18:00
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-04 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-04 18:00
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.05%E -4.32%K -15.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.55%E -3.47%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-04 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%4.3%2026-11-04 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%4.3%2026-11-04 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%4.3%2026-11-04 18:00