Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jose Montanha v Louie Sutherland

2026-08-08 18:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

37%

63%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jose Montanha (Local)

Prediction 36.97%2.70fair odd

EV -2.03%

Edge -0.766%

Kelly -1.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.30%36.84%36.97%38.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.452.582.602.6540.82%38.83%38.46%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louie Sutherland (Visit)

Prediction 63.03%1.59fair odd

EV -2.93%

Edge -1.90%

Kelly -5.43%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.56%63.16%63.03%63.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.511.531.531.5466.23%65.43%65.36%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jose Montanha (Local): 36.97%; Louie Sutherland (Visit): 63.03%. For Jose Montanha (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.70. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.65, with an expected value of -2.03%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -2.03%E -0.766%K -1.23%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.82%E -3.19%K -9.46%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-01 02:00
BetOnline.ag	2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -3.51%E -1.34%K -2.18%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -2.93%E -1.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-08-01 01:58
Caesars	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.88%E -1.49%K -2.42%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.56%E -2.33%K -6.72%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-01 03:44
DraftKings	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.88%E -1.49%K -2.42%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.19%E -2.76%K -8.06%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-01 01:59
BetUS	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -6.10%E -2.40%K -3.96%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -2.93%E -1.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-01 01:59
Fliff	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -9.42%E -3.85%K -6.50%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.56%E -2.33%K -6.72%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-01 01:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.32%	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.78%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.90%	4.4%	2026-08-01 01:59