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Jose Montanha v Louie Sutherland

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 22:45 UTC

Final: Louie Sutherland 0–1 Jose Montanha

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jose Montanha (Local)

Prediction 34.52%2.90fair odd
EV +0.095%
Edge +0.033%
Kelly +0.050%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.03%34.61%34.37%36.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.702.662.9040.82%37.02%37.59%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louie Sutherland (Visit)

Prediction 65.48%1.53fair odd
EV -0.464%
Edge -0.305%
Kelly -0.892%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.29%65.39%65.63%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.471.471.5270.42%68.00%68.03%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jose Montanha (Local): 34.52%; Louie Sutherland (Visit): 65.48%. For Jose Montanha (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.897. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.900, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.095%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV +0.095%E +0.033%K +0.050%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -5.70%E -3.96%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-08 22:44
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +0.095%E +0.033%K +0.050%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -6.36%E -4.45%K -14.78%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 22:44
Pinnacle🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%EV -0.595%E -0.207%K -0.317%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%EV -3.74%E -2.54%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-08 22:15
BetAnything🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -1.63%E -0.572%K -0.882%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -6.36%E -4.45%K -14.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 22:44
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.36%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.74%E -2.54%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-08 22:40
Caesars🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.36%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.05%E -3.48%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 22:35
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.36%E -1.20%K -1.86%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.05%E -3.48%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 12:34
BetUS🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -4.05%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -3.74%E -2.54%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 13:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.08%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.05%E -3.48%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 12:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.08%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.05%E -3.48%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 13:03
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.08%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.05%E -3.48%K -11.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 22:05
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.08%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.70%E -3.96%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 22:25
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.08%E -1.85%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.70%E -3.96%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 19:14
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -6.81%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.74%E -2.54%K -7.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 22:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.81%E -2.52%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.05%E -3.48%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 13:19
FanDuel🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.21%EV -8.19%E -3.08%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.79%EV -1.12%E -0.741%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-08 12:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -8.53%E -3.22%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -1.77%E -1.18%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-08 13:14
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -8.53%E -3.22%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -2.43%E -1.63%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 12:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -9.22%E -3.51%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -1.77%E -1.18%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 12:39
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.22%E -3.51%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.43%E -1.63%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 13:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.22%E -3.51%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.43%E -1.63%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 13:15
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.22%E -3.51%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.43%E -1.63%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 13:14
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.22%E -3.51%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.43%E -1.63%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 13:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.22%E -3.51%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.43%E -1.63%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 13:15
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.22%E -3.51%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.43%E -1.63%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 13:14
Bally Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.22%E -3.51%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.43%E -1.63%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.22%E -3.51%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.43%E -1.63%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 13:14
Coolbet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -9.57%E -3.65%K -5.91%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -0.464%E -0.305%K -0.892%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-07 13:45
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -9.57%E -3.65%K -5.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -1.77%E -1.18%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 12:39
Fliff🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -11.99%E -4.70%K -7.73%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -3.74%E -2.54%K -7.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 22:44
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -15.44%E -6.30%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.31%EV -7.01%E -4.94%K -16.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-08 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%0.9%2026-08-08 22:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.18%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.82%1.1%2026-08-08 22:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.18%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.82%1.1%2026-08-08 22:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.18%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.82%1.1%2026-08-08 22:40
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%3.0%2026-08-08 22:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.55%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.0%2026-08-08 12:29

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