Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jonathan Piersma v Omar El Dafrawy

2026-07-31 23:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

58%

42%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jonathan Piersma (Local)

Prediction 57.59%1.74fair odd

EV -6.70%

Edge -4.14%

Kelly -10.81%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.59%57.59%57.59%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.621.621.621.6261.73%61.73%61.73%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Omar El Dafrawy (Visit)

Prediction 42.41%2.36fair odd

EV -6.70%

Edge -3.05%

Kelly -5.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.41%42.41%42.41%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.202.202.2045.45%45.45%45.45%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.70%E -4.14%K -10.81%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.70%E -3.05%K -5.58%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-07-29 00:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.