The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Jonathan Piersma v Omar El Dafrawy

Kickoff: 2026-07-31 21:33 UTC

Final: Jonathan Piersma 0–1 Omar El Dafrawy

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jonathan Piersma (Local)

Prediction 61.98%1.61fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -4.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.25%61.98%61.98%62.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.531.521.5766.67%65.50%65.79%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Omar El Dafrawy (Visit)

Prediction 38.02%2.63fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.75%38.02%38.02%38.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.482.452.5440.82%40.35%40.82%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jonathan Piersma (Local): 61.98%; Omar El Dafrawy (Visit): 38.02%. For Jonathan Piersma (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.57, with an expected value of -2.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -2.69%E -1.71%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -3.81%E -1.51%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-31 21:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.93%E -2.54%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-31 21:19
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -4.55%E -2.95%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -3.43%E -1.35%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-31 21:30
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.03%E -4.69%K -14.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-31 05:35
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.03%E -4.69%K -14.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-31 05:35
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.03%E -4.69%K -14.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.85%E -2.80%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-31 05:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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