Language:English
Jonathan Micallef v Themba Gorimbo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jonathan Micallef (Local)
Prediction 66.65%1.50fair odd
EV +7.97%
Edge +4.92%
Kelly +12.86%
Growth +1.03%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.81%67.77%66.21%81.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.341.351.6286.96%74.46%74.07%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Themba Gorimbo (Visit)
Prediction 33.35%3.00fair odd
EV +70.09%
Edge +13.74%
Kelly +17.09%
Growth +11.98%
assuming max odds 5.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.53%32.23%33.79%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.223.373.105.1045.05%29.64%32.26%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jonathan Micallef (Local): 66.65%; Themba Gorimbo (Visit): 33.35%. For Themba Gorimbo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +70.09%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -22.69%E -19.56%K -141.79%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV +70.09%E +13.74%K +17.09%G +11.98% | 5.8% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -22.69%E -19.56%K -141.79%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV +70.09%E +13.74%K +17.09%G +11.98% | 5.8% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -23.35%E -20.31%K -155.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV +66.75%E +13.35%K +16.69%G +11.14% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -22.69%E -19.56%K -141.79%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV +58.41%E +12.30%K +15.58%G +9.10% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -22.69%E -19.56%K -141.79%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV +58.41%E +12.30%K +15.58%G +9.10% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -22.69%E -19.56%K -141.79%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV +58.41%E +12.30%K +15.58%G +9.10% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -21.35%E -18.10%K -118.63%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV +46.74%E +10.62%K +13.75%G +6.43% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -18.69%E -15.32%K -84.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +33.40%E +8.35%K +11.13%G +3.72% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 08:38 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -18.69%E -15.32%K -84.94%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV +28.40%E +7.38%K +9.96%G +2.83% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 08:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -16.69%E -13.35%K -66.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +26.73%E +7.03%K +9.55%G +2.55% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -16.69%E -13.35%K -66.75%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +25.06%E +6.68%K +9.11%G +2.28% | 6.7% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -14.02%E -10.87%K -48.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV +15.06%E +4.36%K +6.15%G +0.925% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 08:41 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -14.02%E -10.87%K -48.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV +15.06%E +4.36%K +6.15%G +0.925% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 08:41 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -14.02%E -10.87%K -48.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV +15.06%E +4.36%K +6.15%G +0.925% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 08:41 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -14.02%E -10.87%K -48.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +13.39%E +3.94%K +5.58%G +0.747% | 6.9% | 2026-05-02 08:37 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -14.02%E -10.87%K -48.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV +10.06%E +3.05%K +4.37%G +0.440% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 08:41 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -14.69%E -11.48%K -52.46%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV +10.06%E +3.05%K +4.37%G +0.440% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 08:41 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.90%EV -15.35%E -12.09%K -56.87%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV +8.39%E +2.58%K +3.73%G +0.313% | 9.5% | 2026-05-02 08:41 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -10.69%E -7.98%K -31.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV +6.72%E +2.10%K +3.05%G +0.205% | 5.9% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -10.02%E -7.42%K -28.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV +3.39%E +1.09%K +1.61%G +0.055% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 08:41 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -4.02%E -2.79%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -3.62%E -1.25%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-02 07:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%EV -2.02%E -1.38%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%EV -3.95%E -1.37%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -3.36%E -2.32%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -4.95%E -1.74%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 19:43 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.02%E -2.79%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.95%E -1.74%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 19:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.02%E -2.79%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.95%E -1.74%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 19:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -3.36%E -2.32%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -5.95%E -2.11%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-01 19:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.36%E -2.32%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -6.62%E -2.36%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-02 08:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.02%E -2.79%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.62%E -2.36%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-02 00:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.02%E -2.79%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.62%E -2.36%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-01 22:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.36%E -3.77%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.62%E -2.36%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-02 03:41 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.36%E -2.32%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.29%E -3.01%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 08:37 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.36%E -2.32%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -8.29%E -3.01%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-01 19:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.02%E -2.79%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.29%E -3.01%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 20:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.02%E -2.79%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.29%E -3.01%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 22:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.02%E -2.79%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -8.29%E -3.01%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-01 22:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -4.02%E -2.79%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -9.29%E -3.41%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 08:36 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.36%E -2.32%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -9.95%E -3.69%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-01 18:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.36%E -2.32%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -9.95%E -3.69%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-01 19:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.81%EV +7.97%E +4.92%K +12.86%G +1.03% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.19%EV -25.96%E -11.69%K -21.28%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 08:37 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.46% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.54% | -0.2% | 2026-05-02 08:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 08:41 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58% | 3.3% | 2026-05-02 08:32 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.26% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.74% | 3.5% | 2026-05-02 08:33 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42% | 4.1% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88% | 9.4% | 2026-05-02 08:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 61.39% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 38.61% | 62.9% | 2026-05-02 08:41 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.36% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 32.80% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-05-02 02:14 |