Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jonathan Martin v Wilson Lopshire

2026-08-08 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

46%

54%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jonathan Martin (Local)

Prediction 46.33%2.16fair odd

EV -2.70%

Edge -1.29%

Kelly -2.46%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.88%46.33%46.33%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.062.072.1050.00%48.50%48.31%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wilson Lopshire (Visit)

Prediction 53.67%1.86fair odd

EV -1.79%

Edge -0.976%

Kelly -2.15%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.22%53.67%53.67%55.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.701.731.701.8358.82%57.87%58.82%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jonathan Martin (Local): 46.33%; Wilson Lopshire (Visit): 53.67%. For Wilson Lopshire (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.83, with an expected value of -1.79%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -2.70%E -1.29%K -2.46%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.23%E -4.81%K -11.59%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-05 16:00
Unibet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -4.09%E -1.98%K -3.83%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -8.76%E -5.15%K -12.52%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-05 18:20
Grosvenor🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -4.09%E -1.98%K -3.83%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -8.76%E -5.15%K -12.52%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-05 18:20
Bally Bet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -4.09%E -1.98%K -3.83%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -8.76%E -5.15%K -12.52%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-05 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.34%E -3.67%K -7.34%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.79%E -0.976%K -2.15%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-08-05 18:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.